Market pulse
Currently bullish
57% of conviction-weighted signal across 1808 records
What changed
Comparing the older half of the window against the newer
| WOLF | bearish → bullish | +1.74 |
| CELH | bullish → bearish | -1.50 |
| CRWV | bullish → bearish | -1.50 |
| HIMX | bearish → bullish | +1.33 |
| MSTR | bullish → bearish | -1.33 |
| AMD | neutral → bullish | +1.00 |
| AVAV | bullish → neutral | -1.00 |
| BAESY | bullish → neutral | -1.00 |
| BKSY | bullish → neutral | -1.00 |
| D | bullish → neutral | -1.00 |
Newly discussed
Gone quiet
Changed his mind
Reversals, exits after conviction, and sharp target revisions
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16 Jul 26
Says he'd pick ASML over TSM, but he sold his ASML shares to buy SK Hynix a couple of months ago and would now pick Hynix over both.
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16 Jul 26
Defends his long-term thesis despite recent declines, listing cost bases across several holdings, and admits past mistakes (sold CRWD and SIVE, bought POET).
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16 Jul 26
Defends his long-term thesis despite recent declines, listing cost bases across several holdings, and admits past mistakes (sold CRWD and SIVE, bought POET).
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14 Jul 26
Detailed preview ahead of $AEHR's earnings tonight, expecting a record revenue quarter; flags silicon photonics orders, wafer-level memory burn-in adoption, AI processor backlog conversion, FOX-XP demand, and insider selling as things to watch. Regrets not buying after the last earnings report.
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07 Jul 26
entry_target moved from 36 to 24
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01 Jul 26
Monthly portfolio update: MTD -3.7%, YTD +94.1%, no trades this month, allocation shifts purely from price action across 14 positions including Planet Labs, Ouster, Rocket Lab, Marvell, SK Hynix, ASM International, Palantir, Fluence, Hims, Google, Iren, Wolfspeed, Amprius and Filtronic.
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30 Jun 26
fair_value moved from 40 to 73
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29 Jun 26
Has not entered Filtronic yet; has a buy limit order at £2 which was nearly hit today, and worries he'll regret not buying.
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29 Jun 26
entry_target moved from 200 to 2
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18 Jun 26
Author self-deprecatingly recalls a bad trade in $SIVE at 8SEK, commiserating with another user's regret over a costly $MU purchase.
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12 Jun 26
Argues SK Hynix still has room to grow given a forward P/E of 5.81 versus stronger ROIC/ROE/margins than ASML; sold his ASML shares to rotate into SK Hynix.
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31 May 26
Monthly portfolio update: MTD +40.4%, YTD +97.8%. Bought WOLF and FLNC early in the month, sold TMDX, and sold ASML to fund a SK Hynix purchase (wishes he'd bought more three months ago). Cash allocation ~11.6% and building slightly via savings, not sales. Reviews all 14 core holdings with performance, allocation and outlook: PL (target $60 by year end, earnings 4/6), RKLB (surged on strong earnings), OUST (long-term hold, no longer buy territory), PLTR (favorite AI software play, #1 holding), SK Hynix (regrets not buying more), AMPX (bullish long-term on batteries/drones), IREN (highest-cost holding, datacenter thesis), MRVL (photonics center, healthy balance sheet), ASM.AS (longest-held, safe-haven, €1,000 target where he may trim), Filtronic (SpaceX GaN amp supplier), WOLF (bullish long-term, BoA target >$80), FLNC (Hyperscaler contracts, next quarters crucial), GOOGL (could become most valuable company), HIMS (small 3.7% allocation, may add).
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31 May 26
Monthly portfolio update: MTD +40.4%, YTD +97.8%. Bought WOLF and FLNC early in the month, sold TMDX, and sold ASML to fund a SK Hynix purchase (wishes he'd bought more three months ago). Cash allocation ~11.6% and building slightly via savings, not sales. Reviews all 14 core holdings with performance, allocation and outlook: PL (target $60 by year end, earnings 4/6), RKLB (surged on strong earnings), OUST (long-term hold, no longer buy territory), PLTR (favorite AI software play, #1 holding), SK Hynix (regrets not buying more), AMPX (bullish long-term on batteries/drones), IREN (highest-cost holding, datacenter thesis), MRVL (photonics center, healthy balance sheet), ASM.AS (longest-held, safe-haven, €1,000 target where he may trim), Filtronic (SpaceX GaN amp supplier), WOLF (bullish long-term, BoA target >$80), FLNC (Hyperscaler contracts, next quarters crucial), GOOGL (could become most valuable company), HIMS (small 3.7% allocation, may add).
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25 May 26
Author reflects that he didn't have time to research a position at a key moment due to work commitments, and says it's a mistake he won't repeat.
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15 May 26
Reveals he sold his $IONQ position during the prior quantum-stock hype run after being up 100%, not wanting to hold through the risk of a pullback.
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12 May 26
Explains he exited a position (referred to as Poet by the parent) because the thesis broke, and that the replacement stocks he bought instead are performing well; says he doesn't dwell on past decisions.
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10 May 26
fair_value moved from 42 to 60
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08 May 26
Admits he sold CRWD at $400, joking he sold near the bottom given the stock's rise toward $525.
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08 May 26
Confirms he is still holding FTC.L (Filtronic) but has exited POET.
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08 May 26
Explains he sold TMDX to concentrate his portfolio further since he lacks time to monitor many stocks; TMDX had shrunk to 1% of his portfolio after results, so he moved the money into Fluence.
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08 May 26
Explains selling TMDX: after results it was only 1% of his portfolio, and he wanted to trim his 17 holdings down to 12.
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07 May 26
Announces he sold TMDX and used the proceeds to add to FLNC, keeping cash allocation at ~15%. Also flags he'll review AMPX earnings (already listened) and plans to listen to IREN and RKLB earnings calls, both of which he holds, noting aftermarket looks great for the latter two.
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07 May 26
Reflects that his AI research notebook repeatedly flagged Himax (HIMX) as a top opportunity, but he never acted on it before the stock surged, in hindsight validating the AI's call.
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01 May 26
Monthly portfolio update: best month ever at +48.49% return. Raised cash by selling POET, HOOD and CROWD; only buy was FTC (Filtronic). Wants to add to FTC (currently 4.5% allocation) but is waiting for a better entry. 45% of holdings report earnings next week, especially TMDX and FLNC, his worst performers now under 3% allocation each — earnings will decide whether he trims or adds. Plans to move toward a more concentrated ~12-stock portfolio and expects more trading this month.
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30 Apr 26
Confirms he already sold his HOOD position, and the stock is now trading exactly at the price where he exited.
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30 Apr 26
Explains his philosophy of letting winners run rather than selling too early, noting he still doubled his money on HOOD before eventually selling.
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29 Apr 26
Reflects on having sold HOOD at $70 (still trading near $72), criticizing Robinhood's recent product direction (prediction markets, fancy chairs) as not customer-driven, contrasting with IBKR's expansion into new markets. Believes HOOD can find its way back but only if it refocuses on customer needs.
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28 Apr 26
Names Bloom Energy as the stock he regrets not buying at $80, detailing exceptional Q1 2026 results: revenue up 130.4% YoY to $751.1M, GAAP net income of $70.7M, adjusted EBITDA of $143.0M, positive operating cash flow, and a major FY2026 guidance hike (revenue growth raised to ~80% YoY). Frames it as an AI/data-center power tailwind story with improving operating leverage.
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27 Apr 26
Says he's in the same position as the parent poster (who laid out a bearish thesis on POET following Marvell's contract termination) and confirms he decided to sell, reasoning that with near-zero trust in management there was no point waiting for their response, especially since management sat on the news for four days before disclosing it.
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27 Apr 26
Sold entire POET position at $8 (avg cost $5.8, +38%) after Marvell abruptly cancelled the multi-year supply agreement citing an NDA breach; believes Marvell has an in-house alternative via its Polariton acquisition, so the short-term catalyst (Celestial AI order confirmation) is gone. States the short report didn't break his thesis, but management's handling did.
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27 Apr 26
Agrees that a loss on a smallcap position was an avoidable risk, in hindsight.
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24 Apr 26
States he never trims — he either believes in a company fully or sells it entirely — and mentions recently selling $HOOD and $CRWD without fully reinvesting, effectively trimming his overall portfolio exposure.
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24 Apr 26
Confessional story: bought $SIVE at SEK 11 on 19 March after seeing a hyped tweet without doing his own research, then panic-sold at SEK 8.14 the next day after a bad day at work, missing the subsequent rebound. Uses it to restate his research-first, disciplined-sizing philosophy and explain why he covers newer names like $PL, $INV, Filtronic and $AMPX rather than repeating deep-dives on already-popular stocks.
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22 Apr 26
Reflects that stock-picking is his greatest strength but selling is his weakness, citing HOOD (bought $30, rode to $150, sold at $70 after noticing thesis cracks) and CRWD (bought $240, rode to $550, sold at $400 after AI disruption signs); asks whether to double down on his strength or fix the weak spot.
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22 Apr 26
Regrets not buying AEHR before earnings despite his gut feeling, having been scared off by a pre-earnings drop; the stock is now up almost 100%.
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16 Apr 26
fair_value moved from 73 to 40
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13 Apr 26
fair_value moved from 60 to 40
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11 Apr 26
Sold his CRWD shares (bought at $240, sold at $400), happy with the gains but staying away from the stock for now given how fast/unpredictable the cybersecurity environment has become.
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09 Apr 26
Sold entire CRWD position at $400 for 66% profit and exited the cybersecurity sector entirely, citing unpredictability from AI-driven change in the sector; also notes he sold NET a couple months ago; holding proceeds in cash while deciding next move.
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07 Apr 26
Recounts having bought $IONQ at $21 and sold at $42 before it ran to $84 and later fell back to $28; says he needs to trust his own research and gut feeling given a possibly similar situation now with a different stock.
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07 Apr 26
Doubts $HOOD's prediction-markets-driven growth strategy makes sense given user attrition to competitors like Public, and says he's redeploying that capital into his core holdings.
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06 Apr 26
Announces he sold his entire HOOD position at $70 for a 112% profit, citing stagnating user growth, cheaper-fee competitors taking share, prediction markets conflicting with the original financial-freedom mission, and disapproval of promotional merch stunts like selling novelty chairs.
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01 Apr 26
fair_value moved from 73.78 to 40
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25 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 37 to 17.81
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24 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 40 to 60
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24 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 42 to 21
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24 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 85 to 56
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24 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 300 to 170
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24 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 23 to 10
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24 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 25 to 16
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24 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 160 to 100
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21 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 67.3 to 40
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17 Mar 26
Says he previously held IONQ but sold for a 100% profit; notes analysts still see room for growth.
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17 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 33 to 20
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17 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 97 to 67
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17 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 540 to 175
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17 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 100 to 35
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17 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 125 to 39
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13 Mar 26
Explains he sold ASML rather than ASM International as a portfolio decision, praises ASML as a great company but says the sale was his own call and he's moving forward.
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11 Mar 26
Sold his NU position on Monday after holding about a year for a 23% profit, but is unhappy with the trade because he never fully analyzed the banking sector and views the gain as more luck-driven than the result of his own analysis.
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11 Mar 26
Closed his NET position last Monday after about a year with a 58.52% total return, choosing to keep CRWD instead due to double cybersecurity exposure; still believes cybersecurity is a strong AI-adjacent bet and doubts this particular sell decision the most out of four positions sold that day.
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10 Mar 26
Sold his HOLN (Holcim) position, held since 2022, for a 160% profit (27% CAGR) — his longest-held position. Thesis was the shift from low-margin cement to high-value Building Solutions; considers that shift now largely priced in and harder to track post the Amrize spin-off/split, so he's closing out and moving on.
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09 Mar 26
Author sold his ASML shares today, bought at €676 six months ago, closed at €1,085 for a 60.5% gain. Still likes the business (EUV monopoly) but felt he captured the best of the trade; also holds ASM.AS in the same semiconductor equipment wave so doesn't need both, and wants to reallocate to a different investment wave. No company-specific reason to sell.
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03 Mar 26
fair_value moved from 41.8 to 24.3
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13 Feb 26
Sold his $NBIS position a couple of months ago and is watching for a re-entry opportunity.
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30 Jan 26
Discloses he sold his MSFT position last year, believing the company is behind on AI and now needs heavy extra CapEx to catch up, which concerns him.
What he foresees
Forward-looking statements, grouped by the horizon he gave them
Near term
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07 Aug 26
Highlights Wolfspeed's new partnership with LITEON to qualify its silicon carbide semiconductors for 800VDC power sidecars and compute rack platforms targeting hyperscale AI data centers, framed as accelerating adoption of higher-efficiency power architectures.
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06 Aug 26
Agrees that Q3 should be a big quarter, in the context of the FCC potentially shutting down Chinese lidar competition.
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06 Aug 26
Calls Ouster's results great, notes the revenue beat is significant at this stage, but says the real story starts in Q3 when he wants to see them take market cap share from Chinese lidar manufacturers.
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06 Aug 26
Says he's just holding for now rather than selling or adding, in response to a question about his intentions.
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06 Aug 26
Notes Fluence Energy has turned positive and that management appeared to clarify something during the earnings call that shifted sentiment.
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06 Aug 26
Says he missed Fluence Energy's earnings call live but is surprised by the stock's swing into positive territory; plans to listen to the call that night to understand why.
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05 Aug 26
Says he won't sell his current position but won't add either, seeing better opportunities elsewhere in the market right now.
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05 Aug 26
Details $FLNC's ~25% post-earnings drop: revenue missed by 20% and EPS came in at -0.24 vs expected positive, with ~$400M of deliveries pushed to FY2027 and margin compression to 5.9% from production/construction delays. Notes offsetting positives: record backlog, ~$850M in data-center business secured through July, and a first hyperscaler order validating the tech, though execution remains a major question mark.
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05 Aug 26
Says it's a great time to add and he'll likely add more to his space stocks basket, which are sitting nicely between the 21-day and 200-day moving averages.
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05 Aug 26
In response to being asked whether he's adding to $FLNC, says he wants to see earnings first before deciding.
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05 Aug 26
Notes that a lot of companies are back trading above their 21-day moving average, a technical setup he finds interesting.
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05 Aug 26
General call that it's time to add, illustrated with a meme sine-wave chart marking the trough as the buying point.
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05 Aug 26
Clarifies he had the wrong information, is listening to the AMPX earnings call live, and notes the stock is back above $12.
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05 Aug 26
Reports $AMPX dropped 10% during its earnings call, says he hasn't been able to watch it or find a transcript yet, and asks followers for details.
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04 Aug 26
Notes $AMPX is now at $11.8, up from $8 a week earlier.
Medium term
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17 Aug 26
Argues IREN is deliberately protecting margins and staying patient on power pricing while NBIS prioritizes closing deals; sees the power supply/demand gap widening in IREN's favor, so no need to lower price.
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06 Aug 26
Argues $FLNC is attractive takeover material given Siemens wanting out, strong tech/demand despite poor execution, a hyperscaler contract, Nvidia blueprint battery tech, and a $2B market cap against a $6B backlog.
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05 Aug 26
Criticizes management's inability to fix production problems over 7 quarters of following the company, saying execution should be the sole focus given the backlog.
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04 Aug 26
Reports $AMPX up ~5% on a strong Q2: revenue +126% YoY, EPS in line, with gross margin expanding to 27%, a new $24M European drone contract, a $100M+ multi-year e-mobility deal with Stark Future, progress on the asset-light Fremont pilot line, and raised FY26 revenue/margin/EBITDA guidance. Says he was close to selling last quarter after a weak print but this quarter changed his mind and now expects the stock to surge, with the earnings call the next day.
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04 Aug 26
Highlights that PLTR's commercial revenue has outpaced government revenue by ~80% over 3 years and projects commercial revenue will overtake government revenue by end of 2026.
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31 Jul 26
Shares news that Planet Labs secured a seven-figure one-year contract with the Scottish Government for satellite data and AI analytics, expanding its UK public sector footprint
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30 Jul 26
Shares an article about AI supply chain bottlenecks, noting most of those companies have sold off recently and he sees big opportunities
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30 Jul 26
Says if he didn't already have space sector exposure he'd buy Planet and Rocket Lab now, and would prioritize the space sector over SK Hynix if forced to choose
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29 Jul 26
Recaps the SK hynix earnings call: revenue miss not a concern given the deliberate shift toward HBM/DRAM for AI, notes pricing power, capacity discipline, long-term supply agreements, and a stronger balance sheet, despite the post-earnings share drop.
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22 Jul 26
Names Space as his highest-conviction sector right now, viewing stocks in it as super cheap.
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21 Jul 26
Argues pullbacks are the best time to rebalance a portfolio and that now is a good entry point; lists his own portfolio's thematic 'waves' (Space, Photonics, Batteries, Drones, Memory, Compute, Lidar, GLP-1) and asks what themes he might be missing.
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21 Jul 26
Explains he prefers individual space stocks over ETFs to follow earnings calls closely; says $ASTS's downside is limited but not compelling enough currently, and would buy if it dips under $40 again like last September.
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15 Jul 26
Explains his buy-target strategy: many of his price targets that were called 'too low' weeks ago are now being approached; he has cash ready but prefers to buy into strength rather than time the exact bottom, using $PL's $20 target as the example.
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15 Jul 26
Explains the German GDR he holds (for a couple of months) tracks the same trend as the primary Korean listing, and expects it to align with the primary listing once the US premium settles between 13% and 20%.
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15 Jul 26
Very bullish recap of $ASML's Q2 beat: revenue and EPS both beat, gross margin beat guidance on strong Installed Base Management growth, and FY26 guidance was raised significantly; highlights broad AI-driven demand, robust order intake, and planned capacity expansions.
Long term
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08 Aug 26
States his portfolio has been unchanged for over 4 months apart from buying Bloom Energy; explains he owns 15 stocks (hence discussing many tickers) and is a low-turnover, long-term investor who is transparent when he does trade.
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04 Aug 26
Announces PLTR is back to being a 5-bagger position for him.
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03 Aug 26
Wonders why PLTR isn't more popular on fintwit given he's been a shareholder for 2 years and earnings have never disappointed.
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03 Aug 26
BWXT stays flat after mixed earnings (EPS beat, revenue miss); he likes the nuclear energy thesis and considers BWXT the safest bet, and had hoped for a bigger post-earnings dip to get an entry.
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29 Jul 26
Explains his $HOOD trade in detail: bought at $30, sold roughly half around $75 after it ran to $150, reflects on his philosophy of holding through drawdowns and habitually selling too late
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27 Jul 26
Hasn't bought shares yet in a company he plans to research further, likes it long-term, and notes he tends to be more aggressive on stocks he doesn't yet own.
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27 Jul 26
Acknowledges timing might not be ideal given the AI buildout selloff, but is a long-term admirer of the company and tends to be more aggressive on companies he's not yet in.
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27 Jul 26
Reports on the $500B+ SK hynix / NVDA partnership: a 2-gigawatt AI cloud in Korea using NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform and SK hynix HBM4, with a first AI factory planned for 2027, plus co-development of AI memory solutions.
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24 Jul 26
Says he was criticized for holding cash, but many of his stocks may hit his buying targets next week; is very bullish long-term and plans to deploy almost all his cash, though he'll need to choose which to add.
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23 Jul 26
Points out TSLA is up only 50% over 5 years, lagging both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, framing it as underperformance relative to the broader market.
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23 Jul 26
Happy as a GOOGL shareholder with quarterly results and the CapEx raise, but acknowledges rising risk from negative free cash flow and a challenged moat; believes Google's AI/Space/autonomous driving diversification will let it earn back the spend.
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22 Jul 26
Reviews new Planet Labs London job openings and concludes they confirm his PL thesis: an aggressive European Defense & Intelligence push, a capital-efficient AI partner strategy, a new Berlin manufacturing hub to de-risk ITAR exposure, and hiring aimed at locking in high-touch government switching costs.
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22 Jul 26
Highlights Planet Labs opening a central London (Soho) office as confirmation of its push to expand its European addressable market, citing existing UK infrastructure and partnerships (Goonhilly Earth Station, RPA, Forest Research, NATO, HALO Trust, ONS).
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21 Jul 26
Says $PL, $RKLB, and Filtronic are within 10% of his price targets and he'd add a lot more to his space holdings; bullish long-term thesis on the space economy (TAM growing from $626B to $1.8T by 2035). Bullish on $RKLB (launch services growth), calls $PL his safest pick given its FCF and ties to $NVDA/$GOOGL, and Filtronic his 'bottleneck' pick on space comms tech validated with $SPCX. Likes $ASTS's potential but flags its cash burn as a risk, and is evaluating a new undisclosed micro-cap.
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16 Jul 26
Acknowledges PL's pain but says he believes in the company's long-term plan and is being patient.
Things to watch
Catalysts he flagged, in his own words
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07 Aug 26
Earnings Report
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06 Aug 26
FCC shutting down Chinese lidar competition
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06 Aug 26
Stealing market cap from Chinese lidar manufacturers
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06 Aug 26
Earnings call
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04 Aug 26
earnings call
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04 Aug 26
SpaceX reports as a public company for the first time
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04 Aug 26
SDN Backbone prototype delivery under the Space Force contract
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04 Aug 26
Starship reaching target launch cadence and cost-per-ton to support gigawatt-scale AI satellite deployment
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03 Aug 26
Q2 earnings report
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01 Aug 26
earnings release
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01 Aug 26
earnings release
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01 Aug 26
earnings release
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01 Aug 26
earnings release
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31 Jul 26
Full monthly portfolio update
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28 Jul 26
Bloom Energy earnings call
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28 Jul 26
Q2 2026 earnings report
Held
Best-estimate reconstruction. Allocation bars are relative to his largest stated position.
| Ticker | Allocation | Cost basis | Disclosed | Conviction | Last said |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL |
15.0%
|
4.0 | 83 | Previews SpaceX's first public-company earnings report, explains he is not a shareholder but holds Filtronic, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab which are impacted by... | |
| OUST |
12.1%
|
20.0 | 33 | Calls Ouster's results great, notes the revenue beat is significant at this stage, but says the real story starts in Q3 when he wants to see them take market cap... | |
| RKLB |
9.0%
|
27.0 | 39 | Previews SpaceX's first public-company earnings report, explains he is not a shareholder but holds Filtronic, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab which are impacted by... | |
| MRVL |
9.0%
|
80.0 | 26 | Defends his long-term thesis despite recent declines, listing cost bases across several holdings, and admits past mistakes (sold CRWD and SIVE, bought POET). | |
| 000660.KS |
8.5%
|
487.0 | 32 | Says if he didn't already have space sector exposure he'd buy Planet and Rocket Lab now, and would prioritize the space sector over SK Hynix if forced to choose | |
| ASM.AS |
7.0%
|
279.0 | 18 | After being offline during a move, says he's calm in this market; WOLF hit his buying target so he added a bit more at $34.3, and restates his full watchlist of... | |
| FLNC |
6.1%
|
17.53 | 28 | Agrees to share an update on Fluence Energy after listening to their earnings call. | |
| POET |
6.0%
|
5.8 | 28 | Defends his long-term thesis despite recent declines, listing cost bases across several holdings, and admits past mistakes (sold CRWD and SIVE, bought POET). | |
| HIMS |
5.5%
|
18.0 | 26 | Welcomes the bullish HIMS news as overdue good news for the stock. | |
| GOOGL |
5.2%
|
132.0 | 19 | Happy as a GOOGL shareholder with quarterly results and the CapEx raise, but acknowledges rising risk from negative free cash flow and a challenged moat;... | |
| IREN |
4.8%
|
42.12 | 37 | Disagrees that IREN's slow revenue recognition is unintentional; argues it's a deliberate strategic choice, though he allows it may or may not be the right one. | |
| WOLF |
4.8%
|
36.0 | 19 | Confirms he has a position in Wolfspeed when asked directly. | |
| AMPX |
4.7%
|
10.43 | 43 | Hasn't fully analyzed $AMPX earnings yet but notes that a follower (Finn) put together a good breakdown. | |
| HOOD |
4.2%
|
30.0 | 20 | Explains his $HOOD trade in detail: bought at $30, sold roughly half around $75 after it ran to $150, reflects on his philosophy of holding through drawdowns and... | |
| FTC.L |
4.0%
|
2.0 | 41 | Previews SpaceX's first public-company earnings report, explains he is not a shareholder but holds Filtronic, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab which are impacted by... | |
| PLTR | — | 30.0 | 31 | Announces PLTR is back to being a 5-bagger position for him. | |
| BE | — | 176.0 | 12 | States his portfolio has been unchanged for over 4 months apart from buying Bloom Energy; explains he owns 15 stocks (hence discussing many tickers) and is a... | |
| TE | — | — | 8 | Introduces his new 5-category, 100-point management-integrity framework, explaining that standard institutional frameworks (McKinsey, Morgan Stanley, BCG,... |
Exited & watching
Positions he has sold or is only tracking — not current allocations
| Ticker | Stance | Disclosed | Last said |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | exited | 14 | Defends his long-term thesis despite recent declines, listing cost bases across several holdings, and admits past mistakes (sold CRWD and SIVE, bought POET). |
| TMDX | exited | 12 | Monthly portfolio update: MTD +40.4%, YTD +97.8%. Bought WOLF and FLNC early in the month, sold TMDX, and sold ASML to fund a SK Hynix purchase (wishes he'd... |
| ASML | exited | 9 | Says he'd pick ASML over TSM, but he sold his ASML shares to buy SK Hynix a couple of months ago and would now pick Hynix over both. |
| AEHR | watching | 8 | Notes TSM beat earnings like ASML and AEHR did, yet the stock is down 4% amid a broader red market; expects sentiment to shift as more companies keep beating... |
| NET | exited | 7 | Sold entire CRWD position at $400 for 66% profit and exited the cybersecurity sector entirely, citing unpredictability from AI-driven change in the sector; also... |
| AMKR | watching | 5 | Says he's interested in Amkor but only knows the basics and needs to research it further before forming a view. |
| IONQ | exited | 5 | Reveals he sold his $IONQ position during the prior quantum-stock hype run after being up 100%, not wanting to hold through the risk of a pullback. |
| AAOI | watching | 4 | Agrees that AAOI's short-report-driven sell-off is a similar example to the current situation. |
| ASTS | watching | 4 | Explains he prefers individual space stocks over ETFs to follow earnings calls closely; says $ASTS's downside is limited but not compelling enough currently, and... |
| HOLN | exited | 4 | Sold his HOLN (Holcim) position, held since 2022, for a 160% profit (27% CAGR) — his longest-held position. Thesis was the shift from low-margin cement to... |
| NU | exited | 4 | Sold his NU position on Monday after holding about a year for a 23% profit, but is unhappy with the trade because he never fully analyzed the banking sector and... |
| SIVE.ST | exited | 4 | Defends his long-term thesis despite recent declines, listing cost bases across several holdings, and admits past mistakes (sold CRWD and SIVE, bought POET). |
| BWXT | watching | 3 | BWXT stays flat after mixed earnings (EPS beat, revenue miss); he likes the nuclear energy thesis and considers BWXT the safest bet, and had hoped for a bigger... |
| ENHA | avoiding | 3 | Pushes back on a claim that Enhanced Games' treatments are FDA approved, sharing an FDA import alert showing HGH is not approved for anti-aging or athletic... |
| ENSI.LSE | avoiding | 3 | Says his mystery micro-cap pick isn't $ENSI, which he has already researched but wasn't fully convinced by. |
| ONDS | avoiding | 3 | Confirms space is his largest theme; RKLB and PL are now his top holdings by value due to growth (not original cost basis); Filtronic was an opportunity he... |
| OSCR | avoiding | 3 | States he stays away from insurance companies (in response to a joking mention of Oscar Health). |
| TSLA | avoiding | 3 | Points out TSLA is up only 50% over 5 years, lagging both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, framing it as underperformance relative to the broader market. |
| VRT | watching | 3 | Lays out a broad catalyst calendar across his sector watchlist spanning Q2 2026 through Q3 2027, covering scaling, energization, acquisition closes, product... |
| ALAB | watching | 2 | With his portfolio 20% in cash, lists a set of stocks he plans to research over the weekend before deciding whether to deploy capital. |
| CRDO | watching | 2 | Lays out a broad catalyst calendar across his sector watchlist spanning Q2 2026 through Q3 2027, covering scaling, energization, acquisition closes, product... |
| CRM | avoiding | 2 | Announces a new article on the 'AI race to the bottom': explains why he avoids insurance companies ($LMND, $OSCR, $UNH) and ERP software companies ($CRM, $SAP),... |
| DRAM | watching | 2 | Agrees with a follower that $AMKR and $DRAM look very interesting. |
| DUOL | avoiding | 2 | States he is a fan of AAOI, PL, PLTR and VKTX, but not a fan of DUOL. |
| EOSE | avoiding | 2 | Notes that a stock's drop was likely related to sympathy weakness tied to $EOSE. |
| FN | watching | 2 | FN (Fabrinet) up 10% back to prior all-time high; cites expanded silicon photonics manufacturing partnership with iPronics for AI data center demand as a... |
| IBRX | watching | 2 | Lists companies he plans to research over the weekend: IBRX, AAOI, UAMY, LITE, POET, TE, AMPX. |
| LITE | watching | 2 | Thesis that companies solving AI infrastructure bottlenecks (memory/HBM, packaging, servers, networking, photonics, power/thermal) have pricing power to pass on... |
| NBIS | watching | 2 | Argues IREN is deliberately protecting margins and staying patient on power pricing while NBIS prioritizes closing deals; sees the power supply/demand gap... |
| NEE | watching | 2 | With his portfolio 20% in cash, lists a set of stocks he plans to research over the weekend before deciding whether to deploy capital. |
| OWL | watching | 2 | Says he's looking forward to a write-up on OWL and still needs to research the company further. |
| SPIR | watching | 2 | Gives cautious takes on $SPIR and $BKSY: SPIR has a monopoly in commercial satellite weather data but a limited TAM he hasn't fully researched; BKSY competes... |
| TROO | watching | 2 | Hasn't researched TROO yet, but says it's on his list after being mentioned by another investor. |
| TTD | exited | 2 | Pushes back on hindsight bias around stock picking, noting one could just as easily have picked losers like Adobe or The Trade Desk instead of winners like... |
| AEVA | watching | 1 | Announces a $PL deep dive will be released the next day, in response to a question about PL, AEVA and OUST. |
| AVAV | watching | 1 | Notes he was already researching AVAV, which had just posted a strong earnings beat, after it was recommended to him. |
| AXON | watching | 1 | Says he diversifies across all layers of the AI stack except layer 6, where he hasn't found a fully convincing company yet, though Axon might qualify. |
| AXTI | watching | 1 | With his portfolio 20% in cash, lists a set of stocks he plans to research over the weekend before deciding whether to deploy capital. |
| CELH | avoiding | 1 | Pushes back on the idea that Celsius could be the next Monster, arguing Monster created its own TAM with no competition while Celsius faces heavy competition in... |
| CML.L | watching | 1 | Adds CML (CML Microsystems) as another interesting UK-listed name in response to a thread of UK stock ideas. |
| COHR | watching | 1 | Discloses he bought MRVL a couple of weeks ago as a safe, long-term hold, citing strong management and long-term potential, easy to hold for years. |
| CROWD | exited | 1 | Monthly portfolio update: best month ever at +48.49% return. Raised cash by selling POET, HOOD and CROWD; only buy was FTC (Filtronic). Wants to add to FTC... |
| ENPH | avoiding | 1 | Index post for his Q4 energy-transition thread, listing the 7 waves he tracks (Wind, Green Hydrogen, Solar, Energy Storage, Nuclear, LNG, Mixed companies) and... |
| ENVX | avoiding | 1 | Market de-risking hit energy storage hardest: wave P/S dropped from 3.98 to 3.27 on declines in EOSE, FLNC, ENVX, CATL, though CATL/LG's dominance cushioned the... |
| FLY | avoiding | 1 | Author revisits his earlier view that PL's ATM timing was bad, now noting PL's drawdown from ATH (48%) is actually milder than peers like RKLB, ASTS, SATL, RDW,... |
| GEV | watching | 1 | With his portfolio 20% in cash, lists a set of stocks he plans to research over the weekend before deciding whether to deploy capital. |
| HIMX | watching | 1 | Reflects that his AI research notebook repeatedly flagged Himax (HIMX) as a top opportunity, but he never acted on it before the stock surged, in hindsight... |
| INV | avoiding | 1 | Says he likes Accelsius but finds Innventure (INV) as a whole difficult to invest in because its other subsidiary businesses aren't convincing and are hard to... |
| LMND | avoiding | 1 | Discusses how time-value asymmetry (people not shopping around for the cheapest hotel/electricity deal) could change with agentic AI, and asks the other poster... |
| LPTH | watching | 1 | Lists companies he plans to research over the weekend |
| LWLG | watching | 1 | Speculative reply suggesting LWLG's rally may be capital rotating out of POET rather than fresh conviction. |
| MSFT | exited | 1 | Detailed breakdown of raised 2026 CapEx guidance from AMZN, GOOGL, META and MSFT following earnings, framing the combined spend as an AI-driven historic... |
| MSTR | avoiding | 1 | Responding to a suggestion to park cash in STRC for yield and an MSTR add, says he's not a fan of those crypto-related plays. |
| MTSI | watching | 1 | Initiated a new position in Wolfspeed at $36, thesis built on 300mm SiC wafer development for datacenter and space markets, its link to Filtronic/MACOM's... |
| NEL | avoiding | 1 | Index post for his Q4 energy-transition thread, listing the 7 waves he tracks (Wind, Green Hydrogen, Solar, Energy Storage, Nuclear, LNG, Mixed companies) and... |
| OKLO | watching | 1 | Compares pre-revenue nuclear plays OKLO and SMR (both hit hard, down 71% and 82% off highs) against established value play BWXT (near all-time highs). Sees no... |
| PLUG | avoiding | 1 | Green Hydrogen wave stable this quarter despite Cummins exiting its loss-making hydrogen division; TKA and PLUG lead but margin struggles persist, so he expects... |
| PYPL | avoiding | 1 | Long comparative analysis of NBIS vs IREN business models across hardware/cloud/application layers, Hyperscaler demand, and enterprise strategy (Mirantis for... |
| QRVO | watching | 1 | Weekend research watchlist of companies he plans to look into, with a link to his research method. |
| RDDT | watching | 1 | Lists RDDT as #4 in a screener of stocks with >70% average analyst upside, citing high/low analyst price targets of $300/$170. |
| RDW | avoiding | 1 | Author revisits his earlier view that PL's ATM timing was bad, now noting PL's drawdown from ATH (48%) is actually milder than peers like RKLB, ASTS, SATL, RDW,... |
| SAP | avoiding | 1 | Speaking as an SAP user (not from an investment research standpoint), describes SAP's AI layer as not user-friendly, with users and competitors building their... |
| SHOP | watching | 1 | Detailed notes from Nebius co-founder Roman Chernin: most AI growth still ahead as adoption just takes off; ~50-70% of demand from Hyperscalers (namechecking... |
| SOFI | avoiding | 1 | Explains his concentrated portfolio: has looked at NOW, Zeta, SOFI and Celsius but likes NOW, isn't keen on Zeta, avoids banking stocks like SOFI, and dislikes... |
| SOI.PA | watching | 1 | Asks whether Soitec can keep growing further, noting his own basic research suggests the SOI-substrate TAM might be smaller than the excitement implies. |
| SPCX | avoiding | 1 | Reports SpaceX Q2 earnings: revenue and EPS both beat, driven by Starlink subscriber growth, AI compute segment acceleration, and Starship reusability progress;... |
| UAMY | watching | 1 | Fifth entry (#5) in the high-growth thread: highlights $UAMY's 3-year revenue CAGR of 102.7% and describes United States Antimony as a critical minerals miner/processor. |
| UPWK | exited | 1 | Sold UPWK around $19, hasn't tracked it since, and now views that sale as having been the right call. |
| VICR | watching | 1 | Weekend research watchlist of companies he plans to look into, with a link to his research method. |
| VLN | watching | 1 | Lists companies he plans to research over the weekend: AEHR, FN, CIEN, JBL, VLN, MTSI, IRDM, SPIR, referencing his research method via a linked post. |
Recent trades
Actual buy / sell / add activity, newest first
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08 Aug 26
Recently bought Bloom Energy, the only change to an otherwise 4-month-static portfolio.
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05 Aug 26
Declined to add to his position (ticker not named in this post or its parent), says he won't sell it either, and currently sees better opportunities elsewhere
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05 Aug 26
Planning to add to his space stocks basket (members not named in this post or its parent context)
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05 Aug 26
Waiting for earnings results before deciding whether to add
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05 Aug 26
General call to add now, no specific ticker named
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04 Aug 26
Was almost selling his shares after a weak prior quarter but decided against it, and this quarter's results reinforced that decision
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31 Jul 26
added two days ago
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31 Jul 26
looking to add more, planned
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31 Jul 26
looking to add more, planned
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30 Jul 26
Confirms he bought BE
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29 Jul 26
Initiated a new position today
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29 Jul 26
Sold almost 50% of the position from the top, around $75, after it ran to $150
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29 Jul 26
First-time buy, did not previously hold BE
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29 Jul 26
First buy since March
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28 Jul 26
Chose not to buy ahead of earnings due to his rule of never buying right before an earnings report
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28 Jul 26
Wants to buy before earnings but sticks to his principle of not buying right before an earnings report
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27 Jul 26
Considering finally adding BE to his portfolio ahead of tomorrow's earnings
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24 Jul 26
Plans to deploy most of his cash into multiple stocks expected to hit his buying targets next week, but will have to choose which ones to add
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23 Jul 26
sold previously around $19; in hindsight views it as a good decision
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
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17 Jul 26
will only add around $8 after weaker earnings
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16 Jul 26
sold ASML shares a couple of months ago
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16 Jul 26
bought SK Hynix with proceeds from selling ASML
Watchlist
Recency-weighted — what he is actually talking about now
| Ticker | Mentions | Tilt | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| PL | 248 | +161 | |
| FTC.L | 120 | +73 | |
| IREN | 113 | +57 | |
| RKLB | 84 | +58 | |
| AMPX | 94 | +55 | |
| FLNC | 84 | +47 | |
| 000660.KS | 84 | +60 | |
| OUST | 69 | +49 | |
| PLTR | 64 | +47 | |
| GOOGL | 64 | +39 | |
| MRVL | 62 | +30 | |
| HIMS | 62 | +32 |
Current thinking
His highest-conviction statements, newest first
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17 Aug 26
Argues IREN is deliberately protecting margins and staying patient on power pricing while NBIS prioritizes closing deals; sees the power supply/demand gap widening in IREN's favor, so no need to lower price.
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08 Aug 26
States his portfolio has been unchanged for over 4 months apart from buying Bloom Energy; explains he owns 15 stocks (hence discussing many tickers) and is a low-turnover, long-term investor who is transparent when he does trade.
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07 Aug 26
Confirms he has a position in Wolfspeed when asked directly.
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07 Aug 26
Highlights Wolfspeed's new partnership with LITEON to qualify its silicon carbide semiconductors for 800VDC power sidecars and compute rack platforms targeting hyperscale AI data centers, framed as accelerating adoption of higher-efficiency power architectures.
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06 Aug 26
Calls Ouster's results great, notes the revenue beat is significant at this stage, but says the real story starts in Q3 when he wants to see them take market cap share from Chinese lidar manufacturers.
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06 Aug 26
Argues $FLNC is attractive takeover material given Siemens wanting out, strong tech/demand despite poor execution, a hyperscaler contract, Nvidia blueprint battery tech, and a $2B market cap against a $6B backlog.
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05 Aug 26
Details $FLNC's ~25% post-earnings drop: revenue missed by 20% and EPS came in at -0.24 vs expected positive, with ~$400M of deliveries pushed to FY2027 and margin compression to 5.9% from production/construction delays. Notes offsetting positives: record backlog, ~$850M in data-center business secured through July, and a first hyperscaler order validating the tech, though execution remains a major question mark.
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04 Aug 26
Reports $AMPX up ~5% on a strong Q2: revenue +126% YoY, EPS in line, with gross margin expanding to 27%, a new $24M European drone contract, a $100M+ multi-year e-mobility deal with Stark Future, progress on the asset-light Fremont pilot line, and raised FY26 revenue/margin/EBITDA guidance. Says he was close to selling last quarter after a weak print but this quarter changed his mind and now expects the stock to surge, with the earnings call the next day.
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04 Aug 26
Previews SpaceX's first public-company earnings report, explains he is not a shareholder but holds Filtronic, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab which are impacted by SpaceX; lists what he'll watch: AI infrastructure capex, Space Force contract execution, Starlink enterprise penetration, and Starship progress.
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04 Aug 26
Announces PLTR is back to being a 5-bagger position for him.
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04 Aug 26
Highlights that PLTR's commercial revenue has outpaced government revenue by ~80% over 3 years and projects commercial revenue will overtake government revenue by end of 2026.
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03 Aug 26
Wonders why PLTR isn't more popular on fintwit given he's been a shareholder for 2 years and earnings have never disappointed.
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03 Aug 26
BWXT stays flat after mixed earnings (EPS beat, revenue miss); he likes the nuclear energy thesis and considers BWXT the safest bet, and had hoped for a bigger post-earnings dip to get an entry.
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03 Aug 26
PLTR up 8% after a double beat: revenue +93% YoY, EPS grew 156% YoY to 0.41, US commercial segment grew 149% YoY beating guidance, rule of 40 hit 155%, record TCV, and raised FY2026 guidance.
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03 Aug 26
Previews PLTR earnings: bought at $30 and it's his 3rd largest holding; lists what he'll watch tonight — US commercial growth sustainability, AIP deal conversion velocity, operating margin trajectory, rule of 40, and Ontology ecosystem adoption.
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31 Jul 26
Clarifies he is not selling; says he added $BE two days ago and is looking to add more to Filtronic and Planet Labs.
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31 Jul 26
Shares news that Planet Labs secured a seven-figure one-year contract with the Scottish Government for satellite data and AI analytics, expanding its UK public sector footprint
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30 Jul 26
Says if he didn't already have space sector exposure he'd buy Planet and Rocket Lab now, and would prioritize the space sector over SK Hynix if forced to choose
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30 Jul 26
Confirms he bought $BE, unlike the user replying that they missed it
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30 Jul 26
Notes $BE is up 21% today, attributing the move to earnings landing late
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29 Jul 26
Notes he initiated a new $BE position today, seeing others do the same
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29 Jul 26
Explains his $HOOD trade in detail: bought at $30, sold roughly half around $75 after it ran to $150, reflects on his philosophy of holding through drawdowns and habitually selling too late
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29 Jul 26
Clarifies this was his first BE buy (he didn't previously hold it), and that he stays prepared for opportunities, having found none since March
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29 Jul 26
On PL, which he already owns, says he's patient and waits for it to reclaim the 21 moving average before adding
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29 Jul 26
Announces he just bought Bloom Energy at $176, his first buy since March.
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29 Jul 26
Recaps the SK hynix earnings call: revenue miss not a concern given the deliberate shift toward HBM/DRAM for AI, notes pricing power, capacity discipline, long-term supply agreements, and a stronger balance sheet, despite the post-earnings share drop.
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29 Jul 26
Recaps the Bloom Energy earnings call: contracts have strong protections against project delays, guidance not tied to one project, all major hyperscalers involved, no capacity bottleneck expected, Brookfield expansion is a flexible financial shelf, FY26 revenue guidance raised to $3.9-4.2B, but scandium shortage claims were not addressed.
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28 Jul 26
Says Bloom Energy's next-day open depends heavily on how well management addresses unanswered questions on the earnings call; will listen the next morning and post his take, since he cannot trade after-hours.
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28 Jul 26
Confirms he did not buy Bloom Energy, citing his personal rule against buying right before earnings; will decide after listening to the call.
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28 Jul 26
Agrees Bloom Energy's earnings numbers look spectacular.
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28 Jul 26
Bloom Energy up 7% after crushing earnings (EPS +680% YoY, revenue +166% YoY); FY26 revenue guidance raised to $3.9-4.2B and hyperscalers validated onsite power, but the release didn't address the Oracle Project Jupiter delay, Hunterbrook scandium claims, or the Nebius buildout timeline — expects more clarity on the call.
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28 Jul 26
Bloom Energy down 13% ahead of earnings; lays out reasonable expectations (EPS 0.41, ~10% revenue growth) and the three things to watch — the Oracle Project Jupiter permit delay, Hunterbrook's scandium sourcing claims, and the Nebius deployment timeline — and says he's sticking to his rule of not buying right before earnings even though he might regret it.
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27 Jul 26
With $BE earnings tomorrow, says it might be time to finally add the stock to his portfolio; shares its 1-day chart.
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27 Jul 26
Notes many of his target companies are around 10% from his buying targets, with $PLTR, $OUST, $FLNC and $AMPX reporting earnings next week; plans to wait for the calls before deciding.
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24 Jul 26
Doesn't think $OUST is likely to fall further to reach a questioner's cited target, noting it held up strongly during the recent selloff.
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23 Jul 26
Owns both RKLB and PL; disputes that PL's fundamentals are weaker, pointing to positive free cash flow and near break-even EBITDA as evidence PL's financials look strong.
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23 Jul 26
Happy as a GOOGL shareholder with quarterly results and the CapEx raise, but acknowledges rising risk from negative free cash flow and a challenged moat; believes Google's AI/Space/autonomous driving diversification will let it earn back the spend.
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22 Jul 26
Reviews new Planet Labs London job openings and concludes they confirm his PL thesis: an aggressive European Defense & Intelligence push, a capital-efficient AI partner strategy, a new Berlin manufacturing hub to de-risk ITAR exposure, and hiring aimed at locking in high-touch government switching costs.
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22 Jul 26
Highlights Planet Labs opening a central London (Soho) office as confirmation of its push to expand its European addressable market, citing existing UK infrastructure and partnerships (Goonhilly Earth Station, RPA, Forest Research, NATO, HALO Trust, ONS).
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21 Jul 26
Thanks a follower who built a PL position based on his research and held through the drawdown; confirms he has also held on through the decline from the highs.
Chart reads
What the attached charts and earnings slides showed
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17 Aug 26
Futurum Group 'Neocloud Efficiency Ledger' (data as of Aug 2026), ranking top 10 neocloud/AI HPC providers by contracted revenue per megawatt. IREN ranks #1: ~5.0GW total power platform, ~350MW contracted AI/HPC capacity, ~4.65GW remaining/unsold capacity, $9.7B Microsoft + $3.4B NVIDIA backlog, ~$40M contracted revenue per MW (full-stack GPU cloud). NBIS ranks #7: ~5.0GW target, ~2.0GW backlog tied to Microsoft/Meta anchors, $40B+ backlog, $20-25M per MW, deliberately held for higher-priced deals.
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07 Aug 26
Stock price card for WOLF (Wolfspeed, Inc., NYSE, USD) showing price $32.18, up +16.65% intraday, with an upcoming earnings report flagged for Aug 19. The 1D/1W/1M/3M chart shows a steady uptrend from roughly $28 to $32 over the prior weeks.
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06 Aug 26
Stock price card for OUST (Ouster, Inc., NASDAQ, USD) showing $45.58 at close (+1.02%) but $42.15 after hours (-7.52%), with an earnings report flagged for today. The 1D chart shows a sharp intraday spike to ~$47.5 followed by a pullback and choppy decline into the close.
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06 Aug 26
Intraday price chart for Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC, NASDAQ) showing the stock at $14.24 (+0.07%/+$0.01), climbing steadily from roughly $11 to about $14.5 over the regular session, per Perplexity Finance.
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05 Aug 26
Fluence (FLNC) Q2 Earnings Sheet: Market Cap $2.89B, Price $14.54, Shares out 132.8M, P/E -49.3, P/FCF -11.4, Gross Profit Margin 11.7%, EBITDA Margin -0.7%, FCF Margin -9.8%, ROE -11.6%, ROIC -14.2%. EPS table shows beats in Q1-Q2 25' but misses in Q3-Q4 25' and Q2 26'. Revenue chart shows a large beat in Q3 25' followed by misses in Q4 25', Q1 26' and Q2 26' versus expectations. Key takeaways listed: manufacturing delays hindered execution this quarter, new product costs pressured gross margins, and the company secured major hyperscaler data center battery orders.
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05 Aug 26
A generic meme sine-wave chart with 'buy here!' pointing at the trough and 'sell here!' pointing at the peak, used humorously to illustrate market-timing/cycle-bottom messaging rather than any specific security.
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05 Aug 26
Amprius Technologies (AMPX, NYSE) 1-day price chart: closed prior session at $10.81 (+6.82%), then fell in pre-market trading on Aug 5 to $10.69 (-$1.24, -10.39%), with an intraday range of $10.48-$11.03 and a market cap around $1.53B.
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04 Aug 26
Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Q2 Earnings Sheet: Market Cap $1.61B, Price $11.4, Shares out 139.3M, P/E -39.3, P/FCF -30.3, Gross Profit Margin 22.3%, EBITDA Margin -34.1%, FCF Margin -48.8%, ROE -71.2%, ROIC -152.8%. EPS table shows beats in Q1-Q3 25', misses in Q4 25' and Q1 26', and an in-line result in Q2 26'. Revenue chart shows consistent beats each quarter, actual revenue climbing from $11.28M (Q1 25') to $34.03M (Q2 26') against expectations rising from $8.31M to $29.27M. Key takeaways: high-margin revenue expansion, commercial diversification beyond aerospace, and execution on the asset-light model.
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04 Aug 26
SpaceX Q2 earnings sheet with actuals filled in: EPS -0.09 actual vs -0.23 expected (beat), revenue $7.814B actual vs $6.819B expected (beat). Key takeaways note compute capacity capex acceleration, narrowing AI operating losses, and expanding connectivity margins from subscriber growth.
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04 Aug 26
SpaceX Q2 earnings preview sheet showing only analyst expectations (EPS -0.23, revenue $6.82B) with actuals blank. Key takeaways list AI infrastructure capex scaling, Starlink terminal expansion, and Starship orbital data center milestones as things to watch.
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04 Aug 26
Portfolio app screenshot for Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) showing a price of $153.68, up +22.48% (likely intraday) and +401.79% total return, consistent with the '5-bagger' claim.
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04 Aug 26
Bar chart of Palantir quarterly commercial vs government revenue from Jun'23 to Jun'26. Commercial revenue grew from $231.81M to $990M (307.66% total change, 59.7% CAGR) while government grew from $301.51M to $990M (228.35% total change, 48.6% CAGR) — commercial has nearly caught up to government revenue by the latest quarter.
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04 Aug 26
Intraday price chart for FTC.L (Filtronic plc), London, GBp. Price at 229.00, down -8.76% from an open of 241.00, with high 250.00 and low 220.00.
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03 Aug 26
PLTR 2-year price chart showing the stock up +421.59% over the past 2 years, labeled 'Earnings Report Today'.
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03 Aug 26
BWXT Q2 earnings sheet: EPS actual 1.07 vs 1.04 expected (beat), revenue actual $901.60M vs $903.77M expected (miss). Key takeaways note defense backlog converting, medical divestiture executed, and commercial segment surging.
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03 Aug 26
Palantir Q2 earnings sheet with actuals: EPS 0.41 vs 0.35 expected (beat, 156% YoY growth), revenue $1,935.46M vs $1,811.31M expected (beat, 93% YoY growth). Key takeaways note domestic commercial momentum surpassing raised expectations and expanding operating margins.
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03 Aug 26
Palantir Q2 earnings preview sheet showing only expectations (EPS 0.35, revenue $1,811.31M) with actuals blank. Key takeaways list US commercial growth sustainability, AIP deal conversion velocity, and Ontology ecosystem adoption as things to watch.
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31 Jul 26
Portfolio performance chart, 1M view ending 31.07.2026, showing a -21.90% return over the period with an intra-month low around -27.3%, after a brief early gain
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31 Jul 26
Press release headline image: 'Scottish Government Selects Planet for AI-Enabled Monitoring to Support Sustainable Agricultural Reform', dated Jul 30, 2026
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30 Jul 26
Portfolio performance chart, YTD view ending 30.07.2026, showing +31.52% return, down from a peak of 98.7% earlier in the year with a low of -6.9%
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30 Jul 26
BE (Bloom Energy Corporation) 1-day price chart showing the stock at 198.59, up +21.22% on the day; open 183.50, high 201.73, low 186.01
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29 Jul 26
Intraday chart for SK hynix (SKHY) showing the stock closing at $130.17, down $12.85 (-8.98%), with pre-market trading at $127.83, down a further $2.34 (-1.79%) — consistent with the post-earnings selloff described in the text.
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29 Jul 26
Intraday chart for Bloom Energy (BE) showing the prior close at $166.84, down $21.34 (-11.34%), with pre-market trading up sharply to $184.29, up $17.45 (+10.46%) — matching the text's reference to being up ~10% in pre-market after earnings.
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28 Jul 26
Bloom Energy Q2 Earnings Sheet infographic: market cap $44.87B, price $157.74. EPS beat expectations every quarter shown through Q2'26 (actual $0.78 vs expected $0.41, +680% YoY, +73% QoQ). Revenue beat every quarter too (actual $1,065.37M vs expected $827.02M, +166% YoY, +42% QoQ). Key takeaways listed: record product growth confirms active backlog conversion, Brookfield joint venture investments expanded notably, major hyperscalers definitively validated onsite AI power.
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28 Jul 26
Bloom Energy Q2 Earnings Sheet Preview infographic: market cap $44.87B, price $157.74. Key takeaways framed as open questions for the call: Oracle Project Jupiter regulatory pivot, specific responses to scandium sourcing claims, firm deployment timeline for Nebius infrastructure, supply chain capacity to execute the backlog, and reiteration or adjustment of full-year guidance. EPS and revenue charts show consistent beats through Q1'26, with Q2'26 shown only as an expectation ($0.41 EPS, $827.02M revenue) pending the actual print.
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27 Jul 26
1-day price chart for Bloom Energy (BE, NYSE), trading at $183.83, down 0.57% on the day, with an 'Earnings Report Tomorrow' banner. Intraday range roughly $176.57-$197.50, market cap $52.29B.
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27 Jul 26
Side-by-side NVIDIA and SK logos illustrating the partnership announcement; no price chart or financial data shown.
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23 Jul 26
5-year TSLA price chart (NASDAQ, USD): price 322.51, +50.38% over the past 5 years. Chart shows a volatile range roughly between the low-200s and high-400s from 2022 to 2026, with peaks around late 2024/2025 near 489 and a pullback into 2026; open 341.00, high 341.86, low 318.55, 52-week high/low near 498/297, market cap 1.211T.
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22 Jul 26
Screenshot of LinkedIn job listings for 'planet labs' in the United Kingdom, 7 results, showing open Planet roles: Director People Business Partners EMEA, Partner Business Manager Defense & Intelligence (EMEA), Customer Success Manager Commercial Markets, D&I Program Manager Professional Services, and Senior Program Manager Professional Services for Defense and Intelligence — supporting the post's thesis of a UK/European defense and intelligence hiring push.
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22 Jul 26
Businesswire press release screenshot: 'Planet Opens London Office, Expanding European Footprint', dated Jul 20, 2026, 8:59 AM Eastern Daylight Time.
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18 Jul 26
Portfolio performance chart (YTD view) showing return climbing from a dip of about -6.9% in the spring to a peak of roughly +98.7% around May/June, before pulling back to a current YTD return of +39.75% as of 18.07.2026.
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16 Jul 26
1-day price chart for ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) on NASDAQ showing a sharp decline: price at 57.27, down 13.64% on the day, opening at 59.24, high 61.50, low 57.00, volume 18.15M vs average volume ~22.3M, market cap 22.23B, 52-week range roughly 36 to 133.
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15 Jul 26
ASTS 1-day price chart: closed at $66.31 (-3.65%), down further to $56.98 after hours (-14.07%); intraday range between roughly $64.59 and $70.38, market cap $25.74B.
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15 Jul 26
SKHY 1-week chart: up 24.02% over the past week to $193.92, rallying from roughly $168 to a 52-week high near $194-195; earnings report scheduled for July 29, market cap $1.377T, P/E 28.23.
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15 Jul 26
ASML Q2 Earnings Sheet: market cap €593.26B, price €1,540, gross margin 52.6%, EBITDA margin 37.9%, ROE 52.5%; EPS and revenue both beat expectations across recent quarters, with FY26 revenue guidance raised toward €43-45B and margins of 54-56%.
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14 Jul 26
AEHR Q2 Earnings Sheet: market cap $2.21B, price $70.2; EPS of $0.11 beat the -$0.01 consensus, revenue of $18.83M also beat; key takeaways include accelerating silicon photonics momentum, expanding wafer-level memory pipeline, and a backlog surge validating the AI processor pivot.
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14 Jul 26
AEHR Q2 Earnings Sheet Preview: market cap $2.21B, price $70.2, gross margin 30.7%; look-outs listed are Silicon Photonics Optical Interconnects, Wafer-Level Memory Burn-in (WLBI) Adoption, and High-Power AI Processor Backlog Conversion, with prior quarters' expectation vs actual EPS/revenue shown.
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14 Jul 26
ASML Q2 Earnings Sheet Preview: market cap €593.26B, price €1,540, gross margin 52.6%; look-outs listed are Advanced EUV adoption and shipment timelines, strength of order backlog and shipment visibility, and foundry capital expenditure driven by AI demand.
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10 Jul 26
Photo of the RAISE Summit stage backdrop showing 'RAISE SUMMIT' branding with an IREN sponsor tag underneath.
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10 Jul 26
Screenshot of the Nebius Token Factory website, showing API key setup instructions and a Python code sample using an OpenAI-compatible client.
Methodology profile
Rules he has stated about how he invests, grouped by category. Each links to where he said it.
entry 46
- I never buy more when a company goes up. I only buy extra when it gets cheaper. stated 2× post →
- Never buy a stock right before its earnings report stated 2× post →
- You don't have to buy every small pullback to be a good investor; patience in stocks you believe in is often the better remedy post →
- Avoid buying into a stock that has jumped ~100% purely on promises rather than delivered results. post →
- Don't let price swings scare you - every drop can be a buy signal, we're still in the early innings of the AI boom post →
- Will not chase a stock he feels he missed the entry on post →
- Prefers to wait for a meaningful correction rather than chase a stock at elevated levels post →
- Avoids adding to a sector theme when other companies in that space look overvalued to him post →
- Prefers putting money into an AI company rather than gambling on which individual software company survives AI-driven commoditization of SaaS. post →
- I only buy regular shares post →
- would add to nuclear exposure if the wave's P/S drops further below its historical average of 6.23 post →
- waits for a downtrend to continue before looking for an entry rather than buying immediately on weakness post →
- Buys certain names specifically as 'safe' long-term core holdings meant to be held for multiple years without much monitoring post →
- Buys the dips on high-conviction names during a confirmed uptrend post →
- Waits for an earnings print as confirmation before buying into a name post →
- Prefers to wait for significant fluctuation and de-risking before jumping into pre-revenue names facing major execution risk post →
- Watches warrant redemption deadlines, borrow rates, and options net-premium data by strike/expiry to time entries around forced-selling and squeeze setups post →
- Adds to a position when it goes down, but only if he has a strong thesis on it. post →
- Buys into stocks he believes have dipped too much relative to their value post →
- Waits for a suitable entry point before buying into a company he likes, rather than buying regardless of price post →
- Prefers to wait for a company with weak cash position and heavy dilution history to dilute again before considering an investment, to get a better price post →
- Looks for companies trading near replacement value and net cash position with little to no premium paid for their IP post →
- Advises waiting until after earnings to initiate a position if not confident in the thesis, since a miss could still confirm the long-term thesis while dropping the stock ~25% post →
- Never buys more shares of a stock when it is going up post →
- Hesitant to add new positions when the overall market is trading so high post →
- Does not treat every pullback as an automatic buying opportunity. post →
- Tries to buy only his main convictions — not being in the portfolio doesn't mean he thinks it's a bad stock. post →
- Never buy before earnings, that's guessing post →
- Prefers to buy after the market turns rather than trying to predict the exact bottom post →
- Track investment waves early — if you lack exposure to a wave you want, be aggressive and don't hesitate when the opportunity comes; if you already have exposure, you can be more patient post →
- Will be aggressive buying into industries/stocks he doesn't yet own during a selloff, but stays patient on existing holdings he's already happy with post →
- Sets add levels based on portfolio allocation sizing and how undervalued a stock appears, rather than chasing post →
- Doesn't keep buy limits ready; would rather buy in a bullish market than time the bottom, and is willing to sacrifice buying an extra ~10% lower to avoid catching a falling knife post →
- Rather buy in a bullish market than time the bottom; would buy a lot more once a dip goes up again post →
- A green candle above the 21sma on high volume seems a good indication for AST post →
- If a stock he's targeting bounces back before reaching his price target, he waits for the next earnings report before deciding whether to pay a higher price. post →
- Doesn't like to buy a stock close to its IPO. post →
- Only looking to get back into quantum names at very cheap prices after selling near last year's highs post →
- Will buy above his target price if earnings from the companies he wants to buy are great and the price is only just above target post →
- Prefers to buy when a stock is back above its 21-day moving average, signaling an upward trend again post →
- Tends to be more aggressive on companies he's not yet in post →
- Tends to be more aggressive on stocks he doesn't own yet post →
- On companies he already owns, waits until the stock is back above the 21 moving average before adding to the position post →
- Stays prepared and waits patiently for genuine opportunities rather than forcing a trade post →
- Watches for companies trading back above their 21-day moving average as an interesting technical setup post →
- Likes to add to positions when price sits between the 21sma and the 200sma post →
exit 27
- Hold a stock until the investment thesis breaks; some positions held for 5+ years as part of a long-term investing approach post →
- There is no shame in taking a profit sometimes, even in a company you like post →
- Plan an exit strategy — know what signals your thesis is wrong post →
- Sells a cyclical stock once he feels he's captured the best of the trade, comparing the return achieved against the stock's average historical yearly return post →
- Never sells a part of a position — always sells fully or not at all. post →
- Exits a long-held thesis once the anticipated business-model shift is largely priced in and progress becomes harder to track (e.g. after a corporate action like a spin-off/split). post →
- Would reconsider the position if broad U.S. tariffs on Southeast Asian electronics imports inflate Ouster's bill of materials, since manufacturing is outsourced to Thailand. post →
- Have an exit strategy defined for every position post →
- When you buy shares you buy a part of a company; once you're no longer fully convinced of the company, you should sell post →
- Will exit an entire sector, not just a position, when he judges the sector's future direction has become too unpredictable to research effectively post →
- Believes spending more time following up on existing positions would improve his exit prices. post →
- Avoids selling automatically at a set growth percentage; wants to keep assessing the underlying thesis instead. post →
- Rejects fixed-percentage rules-based selling (e.g. trim 30% after a double); prefers to re-evaluate the investment thesis before trimming. post →
- Prefers not to sell tops or take profits early on winners, letting big positions run even though it sometimes means giving back gains, because it's what let positions like his Planet Labs holding compound massively. post →
- Never trims a position — either believes in a company or doesn't; a full sell is used instead of partial trims, with portfolio-level exposure adjusted by not fully reinvesting proceeds post →
- I always get out on a market order not a limit order post →
- The short report did not change my thesis, management failure does post →
- Describes himself as an all-or-nothing investor — sells his entire position rather than trimming partially. post →
- Lets winners run rather than selling at the high, preferring to sell too late than too early since some positions become multibaggers post →
- Lets earnings results decide whether to exit or add to underperforming positions like TMDX and FLNC post →
- Will sell a holding if management can't prove margins are under control by the next earnings report post →
- No fixed profit-taking rule; decides case by case and sells when the investment thesis is broken, at a loss or a profit post →
- Willing to sell a big winner (up 100%) to lock in gains rather than risk a pullback post →
- I never trim, I sell if the thesis breaks post →
- considers trimming a position that keeps pumping to manage size after a large run-up post →
- Holding through repeated big drawdowns is how he has captured multibagger returns, at the cost of always selling too late post →
- If you no longer believe your own thesis is good enough, sell; if you still believe in the thesis, hold post →
sizing 39
- Portfolio intentionally combines high-beta disruptive growth names with low-beta semiconductor/foundational holdings to anchor volatility post →
- Avoids over-concentrating in a single sector by not adding another position when he already owns names covering that space post →
- Avoids holding two companies in the same investment wave/theme at once post →
- Normally holds cyclical positions for a longer run, but will reallocate to different investment waves when he wants fresh exposure post →
- Some sell/trim decisions are portfolio-level rebalancing calls rather than company-specific judgments. post →
- Trims overlapping exposure within a sector by choosing which single name to keep rather than holding multiple similar positions post →
- Allocate only a small portion of the portfolio to volatile, unproven moonshot small-caps, since only one or two of a basket will pay off and the rest will fail post →
- Looking to get more concentration in the portfolio by trimming down from 16 to 11 total holdings post →
- Sells positions to keep the portfolio more concentrated, and will exit when he loses conviction in a company's trajectory or industry outlook post →
- Sells out of positions when the thesis breaks down, in favor of running a more concentrated portfolio post →
- I always go in with a similar size on every stock. post →
- Starts new positions with a 5-10% allocation. post →
- Usually doesn't add to a stock when it goes up, since its allocation percentage rises automatically as the price rises. post →
- Normally buys at a minimum 5% allocation when initiating a position with conviction. post →
- Manages roughly 10-15 positions at a time, currently trying to consolidate toward the lower end of that range. post →
- New positions are sized between 5% and 8% of the portfolio, with ~7% being a typical starting average and the practical max for a new position post →
- Ranks all investment opportunities and only lets the top 10 make it into the portfolio, rather than holding 20+ small stakes post →
- Wants to move to a more concentrated portfolio of around 12 stocks post →
- Working to reduce number of holdings from 17 down to 12 for a more concentrated portfolio post →
- Prefers a more concentrated portfolio because he doesn't have time to check in daily on all his stocks post →
- Plans to rebuild cash allocation before buying new stocks after it drops too low (currently ~10%) post →
- Had only 10% cash during the tariff dip and wanted to buy much more then; this time wants to reach 20% cash post →
- Wants to build more cash post →
- Working cash allocation up to around 20% post →
- Tries to keep the portfolio between 10-15 stocks; fewer stocks means more risk but also more possible return post →
- Always held between 12 and 17 holdings (avg ~15) rather than a concentrated portfolio — with 15 stocks you are better protected on the downside, catch different waves, and can switch a position without affecting the portfolio too much, while still beating the market. post →
- If you let your winners run, they become a big part of your portfolio and you get concentrated a bit automatically. I rather have the concentration come naturally. post →
- I basically just let my winners run. My cost basis is almost the same with all of my stocks. post →
- Number of stocks held scales with portfolio size post →
- Buys more based on the allocation of his portfolio; won't add to a position that is already his highest allocation post →
- Building up cash at the moment (currently ~11.6% of the portfolio) unless a great new addition is found — growing the cash pile through saved income, not by selling positions. post →
- Wants to stay under 15 holdings in the portfolio at the moment. post →
- Only invests in the companies he has the most conviction in, rather than spreading research across many names — doesn't have time to analyse 150 companies. post →
- Feels hesitant to add to a position above his original buy price post →
- Prefers to add to existing high-conviction positions rather than buy a new stock that doesn't fully convince him post →
- Don't add to a position that's already your highest allocation just because it's dropping — concentrating further should only happen if punished even more, and patience is affordable when you already have full exposure post →
- Keeps cash available so he can buy when the market pulls back toward his price targets post →
- Builds cash position through primary income rather than selling holdings to raise cash post →
- Between attractive opportunities, currently prioritizes the space sector over the semiconductor sector (e.g. SK Hynix) post →
risk 56
- A 2% savings account return doesn't tell the full story — inflation means you can still lose money in real terms in some years post →
- Cash is king post →
- The SMR developer valuations assume perfect execution on 2030 promises — the safer trade is the miners and existing fleet operators rather than the speculative developers. post →
- Values a diversified, dual-engine revenue base (e.g. retained bitcoin mining) as a hedge that can be arbitraged during demand spikes post →
- Weighs insulation from hardware obsolescence risk, financing structure, and long-term contracts as markers of a 'safer' investment post →
- A company in a fragile, capital-intensive scaling phase needs flawless execution; missed milestones are red flags, not minor hiccups post →
- Don't park money in SaaS companies without being deeply aware of AI's impact on their business model post →
- Try to stay invested at all times, but you can't own individual stocks anymore without following them daily. post →
- You can't park your money at a company without checking the daily changes. post →
- Views biopharma as an especially difficult sector to manage/trade. post →
- Holds through short-term selloffs when the core thesis (e.g. pricing power from a near-monopoly position) remains intact post →
- Monitors the cascading effects of the Iran conflict on global LNG/energy prices as a risk to power-intensive semiconductor manufacturers he holds. post →
- Watches for a severe HBM supply glut emerging as new capacity from competitors (e.g. Samsung, Micron) comes online, which would erode pricing power. post →
- Tracks US export license risk for advanced chipmaking tools given significant China-based manufacturing exposure. post →
- Watching whether base product and software revenue decelerates once the one-time $21.2M IP royalty settlement is stripped out of earnings. post →
- Watch for vertically integrated companies that build large customer-specific factories without diversified outsourcing, since a drop in orders from that customer can create major CapEx problems (per AAOI's 2018 experience) post →
- When assessing an ATM offering, weigh three pressures on the stock: the discount needed to attract new shareholders, the EPS dilution from added shares before new capital generates returns, and the added share supply against demand post →
- Evaluate ATM offerings by their size relative to market cap, since this determines the real dilution/liquidity impact for long-term shareholders post →
- I keep some cash available so I can handle a market correction, since I'm invested for the long term. post →
- Maintains a cash reserve (currently ~10%) as a buffer rather than reactively raising it during a crisis post →
- Time decay on options can work against a holder even when the long-term thesis on the underlying earnings is intact post →
- I only buy common stocks, no leverages or options. post →
- Never uses margin post →
- With cash exceeding liabilities relative to market cap, downside is limited because investors are usually willing to pay above book value post →
- Keep some cash ready ahead of geopolitical shocks that could hit markets post →
- Managing cash level actively, aiming to bring cash from 20% down to 10% this month post →
- Willing to hold elevated cash (25% vs. his usual max of 5%) during geopolitical uncertainty, with no rush to deploy it post →
- Prefers to hold sale proceeds in cash and wait rather than immediately redeploy into a new idea post →
- exits a position when the sector it's in is changing too fast and becomes too unpredictable to assess post →
- Weighs upside reward against competitive-displacement risk when sizing conviction in a category leader post →
- Weighs whether an automatic risk-management framework would help (e.g. on HOOD) against the fact it would have cut short his biggest winners (e.g. Planet Labs). post →
- Built up risk tolerance gradually over about 10 years, moving from the safest low-growth stocks to riskier growth stocks step by step rather than jumping straight into high-risk hype names. post →
- Acknowledges that the risk taken on a smallcap position was avoidable and should have been managed better post →
- If trust in management is already near zero, there's no reason to wait for their reaction or comment before selling — management had days to get ahead of the news and chose not to. post →
- Capital & Dilution Discipline (25 pts): award full Dilution Restraint points only if shares outstanding grew less than 5% annually (or dilution was tied to accretive M&A); deduct up to 10 points for 'death spiral' dilution with heavy warrant coverage and no revenue growth to match. post →
- Needs to be able to trust management's execution and honesty to build his investment case; a major miss combined with perceived incompetence ends his interest in a stock post →
- Flags customer concentration risk (75% of revenue from one customer) as a real risk even within a bullish thesis post →
- Only invests money he doesn't need in the short term (e.g. can cover his mortgage from wages alone), treating the portfolio as capital he can afford to risk. post →
- Recognizes multi-baggers carry the highest risk, including total-loss scenarios (e.g. Filtronic going to zero if SpaceX pulls out) post →
- Avoids predicting near-term winners because that amounts to market timing; diversifies across multiple thematic waves (space, AI, drones) to mitigate that risk post →
- Don't worry too much about short-term volatility caused by big traders — know your thesis and hold long-term, since institutions build positions gradually over time. post →
- If you don't have the time to do proper research and check news, concentration is probably just betting — better to invest in ETFs instead of concentrating. post →
- A day when your portfolio scares you is a good signal to look at lower-beta names if you can't handle the volatility. post →
- Never uses leverage, describing it as basically funding your broker, and would not recommend it. post →
- Be disciplined and control FOMO — take only calculated risks so you don't lose what you've built by overexposing yourself chasing a bigger gain post →
- Stay diversified across multiple investment waves so some are always rising while others are falling post →
- Watch capex spending relative to guided demand to gauge oversupply risk before committing further to a cyclical, boom-bust-prone sector like memory. post →
- Avoids overexposure to core anchor holdings and is willing to wait until they are very cheap before adding post →
- avoids investing in markets he doesn't have experience in, such as Chinese stocks post →
- Assesses board composition and members' domain expertise relative to a company's business model pivot (e.g. bitcoin miner to neo-cloud) as part of governance risk analysis post →
- Evaluates executive stock-based comp as a percentage of revenue, benchmarked against direct peers, to judge whether a compensation package is disciplined or excessive post →
- When a buy target is hard to set due to execution-risk-heavy upside, focuses on protecting the downside instead — checking book value and available cash post →
- Views these stocks primarily through downside protection rather than upside potential — checks cash, total debt, and short-term liabilities on the balance sheet post →
- Accepts that uncertainty is part of the trade-off with high-growth stocks — you pay or gain on the uncertainty post →
- Stays away from biotech because he doesn't know anything about that area post →
- Small stackable gains compound into large ones, so avoid taking extra risk that could throw them away once ahead post →
research 216
- Tracks institutional ownership bar charts over time to gauge accumulation, e.g. noting a jump in shares held during a dip around $11. post →
- The era of cheap capital is over — the market now rewards those who own the atoms and the infrastructure, and demands cash flow over chemistry from speculative names like hydrogen plays. post →
- Don't buy the hype, buy the plumbing — favor the infrastructure/enabling companies behind a theme over the hyped end-products. post →
- For biotech/pharma companies he can't technically evaluate, he analyzes them from an economic perspective rather than trying to judge the underlying science post →
- Avoids getting excited about projects/companies whose future cash flow is difficult to predict, even if he likes the underlying story post →
- Performance comparisons between stocks depend heavily on the time horizon chosen post →
- Uses cash flow rather than earnings for projections post →
- Compares Satellogic's satellite count/launch cadence and cash burn against its own target timelines to judge how credible its threat to Planet is post →
- No CEO should think in terms of quarters post →
- Feeds Gemini roughly 9 standard financial charts per company — general overview, revenue with revenue growth, gross profit margin with operating profit, free cash flow with FCF margin, ROIC and ROE, P/E and forward P/E, expected revenue and free cash flow, stock-based compensation, and R&D-to-revenue — before running the deep-dive analysis post →
- Uses a fixed Deep Research prompt template to generate a formal, objective 20-30 page equity report per company (executive summary plus 12 numbered sections covering business model, competitive advantages, financials, financial health, competitor analysis, opportunities/risks, pricing analysis, valuation realism check, and conclusion), cited to roughly 150 sources post →
- For the pricing/valuation section, runs a reverse DCF using a 10-year horizon, the latest stock price, free cash flow excluding stock-based compensation, a 3% perpetuity growth rate, and a 10% required return; if free cash flow is negative, solves for what cash flow would need to be over the next 10 years to justify the current price, then checks whether the implied growth is realistic versus historical growth and market dynamics post →
- Loads NotebookLM with the Deep Research report, the company's annual report, its 3 latest quarterly reports, and the annual reports of its 2 main competitors, mainly to compare the risks and opportunities sections across all of them post →
- Generates a 15-30 minute NotebookLM audio-overview podcast (two-host, detailed format) from the assembled sources as a fast way to absorb a company's investment thesis before deciding whether to research further post →
- Uses the paid version of Google Gemini for his company research process post →
- First listens to the AI-generated research podcast on a company; if he likes it, reads the full report, takes notes, and asks the AI for a bibliography of the sources used so he can dig deeper on specific sources later post →
- Listens to AI-generated company research podcasts while driving, since he spends a lot of time in his car post →
- Prefers companies that own and monetize the actual computing hardware (capturing the full infrastructure profit pool) over real-estate/landlord models with higher margins but a lower revenue ceiling post →
- Values contracts with faster revenue realization and upfront prepayments (non-dilutive financing) over longer-dated, slower-realized contracts post →
- Weighs preferred vendor/partner status and priority access to constrained hardware supply as a durable competitive moat post →
- Favors vertically integrated business models that minimize reliance on third-party contractors and speed up time-to-market post →
- Weighs a company's cost/supply-chain structure (e.g. % of materials sourced domestically) as a factor in its risk profile post →
- Look past flashy headlines (e.g. non-binding agreements) to the underlying financials when evaluating a company post →
- Companies whose main revenue comes from customized/project-based work instead of standardized products take an immediate hit to consolidated margins when supply chain problems occur post →
- Emphasizes caution and research as his current approach post →
- After a strong demand signal, watch execution on margins as the next key metric. post →
- Uses weekends to do dedicated research on candidate companies post →
- Trusts management that has consistently been open and accurate about their reported figures post →
- Invests in thematic waves rather than picking single names post →
- Watching for foundry capacity reservations (TSMC, Tower, etc.) as the core signal that a supply squeeze is hitting a name post →
- Reacts quickly to official earnings releases rather than rumors or leaks. post →
- Check the underlying data before accepting a dramatic headline like 'massive crash'. post →
- Expects margin expansion to continue as recurring high-margin subscription revenue attaches to a growing installed base of hardware post →
- Distinguishes physical supply risk from price exposure risk when assessing energy supply chain resilience post →
- Evaluates operating leverage by checking whether overhead costs grow slower than revenue as a company scales post →
- Maps the AI chip industry as a structured supply chain of phases and layers to identify where bottlenecks and investable companies sit post →
- Separates supply-chain mapping research from valuation or buy/sell recommendations post →
- Distinguishes technological progress from near-term stock reaction, noting the market can be impatient with long timelines to profit even when the underlying tech is progressing post →
- Notes that a stock can stay flat on a strong beat when the market has already priced in expected good news post →
- Reads early hardware procurement ahead of signed contracts as a signal of strong demand or term sheets in progress post →
- Distinguishes mapping a supply chain from making buy/sell valuation calls post →
- Views hardware/infrastructure fit (e.g., air-cooled vs liquid-cooling retrofit needs) and near-term revenue capture as more important than chasing the technically superior chip post →
- Encourages followers to always do their own research rather than relying solely on his view post →
- Tries to filter out extreme bullish/bearish noise on polarizing stocks and maintain a neutral, read-between-the-lines stance post →
- Uses weekends to do research on candidate companies before acting post →
- Stock price is the least important thing about a stock post →
- Evaluates chipmakers by who controls the open-standard, vendor-neutral architecture vs proprietary lock-in post →
- Know exactly how they make money before buying a new stock post →
- Have a clear thesis for why the company will grow post →
- Runs a reverse DCF to compare the market-implied growth rate against actual structural industry growth to gauge valuation asymmetry. post →
- Evaluates whether a price target is achievable by modeling required TAM capture, margin expansion trajectory, and potential for supply-chain dominance and revenue diversification. post →
- Uses reverse discounted cash flow analysis to check what free cash flow growth rate the current market cap implies over a 10-year horizon post →
- Compares a company's forward P/E against its closest industry competitor to judge relative valuation post →
- Listens to earnings calls as a trigger to deepen research into a company post →
- Regrets buying into a sector (banking) without fully analyzing it himself, relying instead on others' opinions and general exposure goals post →
- Uses a reverse discounted cash flow analysis to check what free cash flow / revenue the company must hit by a future year to justify its current market cap post →
- An ATM offering can be a net positive if the raised capital is deployed into high-return investments that expand the overall pie post →
- I only listen to every interview/conf call and rip through 10-Qs once I already like a company — that's how I make my first selection, not before. post →
- Watches assets/markets heavily dependent on the Strait of Hormuz as an indicator of geopolitical risk sentiment post →
- Avoids the banking/insurance industry because it is too complex to judge confidently post →
- For early-stage developers, near-term EPS losses are normal and not a red flag if the cash runway and long-term milestones are strong post →
- Uses TipRanks to follow analysts' expectations post →
- A good stock pitch should demonstrate an economic moat, high ROIC, predictable earnings and a rational valuation, with macro forecasting and short-term price action disregarded post →
- Tests new stock theses by pitching them to an AI Gem loaded with Buffett/Munger shareholder letters and value-investing material, and iterating with follow-up questions post →
- When evaluating an earnings report, look past the headline EPS to AI chip production ramp/yield, pricing trend durability, capex discipline, and whether AI demand offsets weaker consumer device demand post →
- Wants confirmation that customers have cleared backstock of older chips before treating renewed buying as a real demand signal post →
- To check if a company has pricing power, I always check the revenue growth and the gross profit margin growth — pricing power means it can grow revenue while also growing margin. post →
- Weighs risk-reward partly on a company's cash position and its potential to make accretive acquisitions (e.g. PL's cash enabling a possible SATL purchase) post →
- Government/military trust in a company's product (a 'program of record') acts as a moat and a signal that private-sector enterprise adoption will follow post →
- Do your own research so you know what a company is capable of, rather than trading on conviction borrowed from someone else's recommendation post →
- Know why you hold a company, which catalysts you are watching for, and have an exit strategy post →
- Digs deeper into a sector after noticing chatter around one name, to find other opportunities within it post →
- I calculated 3 valuation scenarios based on differing FCF margins, US TAM size, and the US market share Ouster can capture post →
- I projected FCF margins by benchmarking against other AI-hardware sectors in a more mature, more competitive phase, using the lowest comparable margin I found (10%) and only going as high as 35% for a true monopoly post →
- I used a desired return of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3% in my valuation model post →
- I only projected the US market portion of revenue since that's what the SAFE LiDAR Act tailwind applies to, using the minimum published TAM estimate as my bear case and the maximum as my bull case post →
- Avoids insurance and ERP software companies that are vulnerable to an AI-driven 'race to the bottom' eroding their competitive moat post →
- Judges speculative small-cap names by their financial statements (revenue trend, gross margin, profitability, free cash flow) rather than by social-media hype or volatility screenshots post →
- Evaluates stocks on actual revenue growth and gross-profit-margin trends rather than assuming similar-sounding names will repeat another stock's run post →
- Uses NotebookLM's podcast feature for research while driving, and a custom Gemini 'Gem' for deeper discussion and analysis post →
- Watches for design win announcements and NRE revenues as forward signals ahead of a photonics component company's revenue showing up post →
- Profitability does not matter early on, but revenues and gross profit margin should be growing in order to reach profitability eventually post →
- Doesn't really look at charts/graphs when evaluating a stock post →
- For companies like POET with no conference call, has to rely on reading whatever is published in the earnings report itself post →
- Considers most charts and investing books to be largely a waste of time post →
- Digs deep into supply chains of a sector to find underexposed companies post →
- Do your own research rather than being pushed into decisions by headlines or social media post →
- Values positive free cash flow as a competitive edge that lets a company keep innovating without needing to raise or burn cash like rivals post →
- Looks for founder-led CEOs with a science PhD as a (semi-joking) stock-picking filter post →
- Likes CEOs who have a deep understanding of their business post →
- The PhD/technical-credential exception only applies when the person is actually the company's founder, not just any credentialed CEO post →
- A founder holding a PhD in a relevant technical field (e.g. Computer Science) can be an exception that offsets otherwise negative views on a stock post →
- Uses weekends to do research on new candidate companies before considering positions post →
- During war-driven energy inflation, companies that solve critical AI infrastructure bottlenecks retain pricing power to pass costs to customers, making them prime investment opportunities during market corrections post →
- Stock picking is only a good idea if you spend daily hours on research post →
- Start by identifying investment waves — industries with fast-growing TAMs — then research companies within that industry to find the ones best positioned to benefit the most post →
- Believes stock picking requires dedicated research time; shouldn't be attempted without it post →
- tracks 7 energy transition waves each quarter (Wind, Green Hydrogen, Solar, Energy Storage, Nuclear, LNG, Mixed companies) using P/S ratio to monitor sector valuation and rotation post →
- tracks the P/S ratio of the overall energy transition sector each quarter to judge whether investors should be positioning into it post →
- does a dedicated weekend research pass over a watchlist of candidate stocks before committing cash post →
- Uses AI as a research tool to pick up investing research again after years away from it post →
- Focuses on asking the right questions rather than just finding information, both in his engineering job and in investment research post →
- Checks expected revenue/cash flow by adjusting a financial data tool's timeline from the LTM point roughly 3 years forward post →
- Notes that institutions like Wolfpack typically close 90% of their short trades within about 5 months, often within weeks post →
- Reads reports and takes notes on iPad, uploads to NotebookLM-style tool for review post →
- Always verifies that AI-generated research summaries use real figures from the source and haven't invented numbers post →
- Uses AI tools (podcast/notebook style) to read and summarize charts as part of his research process post →
- Looks for companies with a critical chokepoint/commercial monopoly position within a larger supply chain, especially where a major customer is effectively subsidizing R&D. post →
- Spends most research time finding new opportunities rather than monitoring existing portfolio positions. post →
- Values input from the FinX community but does not fully crowdsource his investment decisions. post →
- Never blindly follow someone else's stock pick without doing his own research first, even under time pressure. post →
- When comparing company performance, use a fair, comparable starting point (e.g. from a strategic pivot) rather than an arbitrary or cherry-picked date post →
- Uses a defined method for researching new companies efficiently rather than wasting time (detailed in a linked resource) post →
- Favors companies that can supply power capacity to hyperscalers, since power is the current bottleneck in AI infrastructure buildout post →
- Wary of companies that look too much like a consultancy post →
- Not something I normally like — avoids companies that look like consultancy businesses post →
- Avoids investing in a holding company when its non-core subsidiary businesses are unconvincing and obscure the value of the part he actually likes post →
- Uses AI apps like Gemini to get comprehensive overviews as part of his research process post →
- Believes access to AI research tools and platforms like X now lets ordinary investors verify facts and understand what they own, which blunts the fear effect of short reports post →
- Prefers downstream refiners/recyclers with existing infrastructure over miners when a supply shock hits, since refiners can capture elevated prices immediately while miners need 5-10 years to build new supply post →
- Built a 5-category, 100-point management framework (Say-Do Ratio 30, Communication & Transparency 20, Capital & Dilution Discipline 25, Founder-Led & Insider Alignment 15, Strategic Focus 10) specifically because standard institutional frameworks that weight ROI, free cash flow, and dividends unfairly penalize high-growth, pre-profit companies. post →
- The AI evaluator must not rely on pre-existing training data — it must actively search for and cite the most recent 10-K/10-Q, DEF 14A proxy, and last 2-4 quarters of earnings call transcripts, and score conservatively when it can't find enough information on a metric. post →
- Say-Do Ratio (30 pts): in pre-profit companies, trust is the only currency — if management can't accurately forecast its own engineering/sales timelines, its financial projections are worthless; award full Product Delivery points if 24-36 month-old commercialization timelines were met, deduct 5 points per major delay or quiet abandonment, and deduct 10 points for chronic downward guidance revisions. post →
- Founder-Led & Insider Alignment (15 pts): deduct 5 points immediately if insider selling occurs in the weeks prior to negative news or missed earnings, but award points if all insider sales were executed via pre-planned Rule 10b5-1 programs set up months in advance. post →
- Runs valuation queries on Gemini Pro mode for more consistent output, and has heard Claude may be more reliable still, though he hasn't tested it. post →
- Founder-led status is capped at 5 points in the management framework, meant as a 'nice to have' bonus rather than a dominant factor, but the full category breakdown lets readers judge for themselves. post →
- Built his own management-rating framework (score out of 100) to judge honesty and track record on hitting targets; Filtronic scores 96/100, Poet scores 19/100 post →
- Uses AI tools (Gemini/Claude) to score management out of 100 as a quick check; above ~75 is great, below ~30 is bad, and reads the AI's written comments too, not just the number post →
- Is skeptical of traditional analyst research (e.g. Morningstar) when it comes to disruptive businesses, favoring trusting his own read over such reports post →
- Does deep multi-week research into a sector's technical bottleneck before forming an investing thesis around it post →
- Actively looks to expand his research toolset with AI tools post →
- Does extensive research on a sector even when he decides not to publish an article about it post →
- Distinguishes between being confident in a technology's trajectory versus being confident in any specific company or the investing risk within that industry post →
- Rates management across his full holding list on capital discipline — dilution, stock-based compensation, insider ownership — and on whether they hit stated timelines and guidance. post →
- Scores management on dilution levels, insider ownership, execution track record, and whether they keep the promises they make. post →
- Distinguishes between a company's messy historical execution/dilution record and its current operational trajectory, giving credit for recent improvement even when past guidance was missed. post →
- Judges management primarily on capital discipline — penalizing heavy shareholder dilution, bloated stock-based compensation, and a history of missing or over-promising on guidance/timelines, even when technical execution is strong. post →
- Looks for AIP bootcamps converting into paid, long-term enterprise contracts as validation of go-to-market strategy post →
- Watches for continued acceleration in US commercial customer acquisition to confirm diversification away from government revenue post →
- Tracks timing and visibility of major government contract renewals for clues on baseline revenue stability post →
- Checks operating leverage to ensure sales efficiency stays sustainable while scaling post →
- Uses customer retention metrics as the ultimate proof of platform stickiness and indispensability post →
- Attributes early identification of winning stocks to doing his own research post →
- Willing to take on bankruptcy/turnaround risk when a structural technology shift (300mm SiC wafers) is not being priced in by the market post →
- Ahead of earnings, watches datacenter segment growth, 300mm SiC development progress, free cash flow growth, and any space-related updates as the key things that matter post →
- I often look more at the free cash flow than at the EBITDA. Less accounting tricks possible with the free cash flow. post →
- Uses growth in both revenue and gross profit margin together as an objective test for whether a company has a real moat, rather than a subjective framework post →
- Prefers to do his own analysis rather than just believe what management says post →
- Listen to earnings calls and interpret the actual numbers yourself rather than reacting to algo-driven initial price moves, which only look at headline numbers post →
- Does deep research on a company and how the market values it before earnings, so he knows what he and the market are looking for post →
- Without initial research and a business case, earnings calls are mainly noise post →
- Listens to earnings calls via the investor relations pages of the specific company post →
- Prefers to do his own research rather than follow other people's investment calls post →
- Weighs competitive dynamics and total addressable market size (e.g. Anduril's competition shrinking Ondas' TAM) when comparing similar names post →
- Just shares his research — followers should still do their own due diligence rather than blindly follow him. post →
- X is a goldmine of research/information if you know where to look post →
- I use X mainly to find new tickers and do the research myself. post →
- If you build your thesis before you buy, you just have to check once in a while if the thesis still holds. Building the thesis is the hard part, not the tracking. post →
- Researches competitive landscape and supplier risk (e.g. checking if a company relies on a sole supplier) before forming a view post →
- First things checked on a new ticker: sector, revenue growth, gross profit margin post →
- Distinguish backlog (no fixed timeframe) from orders-on-hand (tied to purchase orders already received) before comparing companies on contract value. post →
- Never compare backlog or orders-on-hand against market cap without factoring in margins — a lower backlog with a SaaS-like margin profile (e.g. PL) can produce more free cash flow than a larger hardware backlog (e.g. FLY). post →
- Judge whether a backlog is a positive or negative signal based on product predictability: production/project backlogs can mean delays and unhappy customers, while subscription backlogs reliably convert to revenue. post →
- Draw meaningful conclusions only by combining raw numbers with business/accounting context — numbers alone or context alone are each insufficient. post →
- Judge margin quality by understanding whether a company is project-based (higher COGS from direct labor) versus subscription-based, rather than reading a low headline gross margin as automatically bad. post →
- Track whether management has been transparent about weak margins and has a track record of delivering on promised improvements before trusting a margin-recovery thesis. post →
- Digs into upstream customer CapEx allocation (e.g. SpaceX capex breakdown) to assess forward order flow risk for hardware suppliers. post →
- When evaluating cheaper competitors instead of the market leader, compare P/S valuation — a competitor's P/S should be way lower than the leader's to be interesting, otherwise just buy the best company (PL). post →
- Always does his own research before acting post →
- Not having time to do proper research before acting was a mistake he will never make again post →
- Avoids banking stocks because their business models are too different from other sectors and he feels you need to be a real industry expert to beat the market there. post →
- Following AI agents that scan X for short reports and going long on the targeted stocks can be a strategy to beat the market. post →
- Judge an ATM's real dilution impact (max ~10% spread over years) rather than reacting to the headline drop, since companies raise capital while they can, not when they have to. post →
- Doesn't usually look at volume as a factor before starting to build a position. post →
- Use AI to make research 10x easier — don't be lazy, put in the effort of doing research. post →
- Follow the right people for free alpha, but use their information to your advantage rather than following them blindly. post →
- Includes valuation analysis in write-ups for readers who value it, even when he personally believes price doesn't matter for a good long-term play. post →
- Warns against judging a stock's cheapness by market cap alone; compares valuation multiples like P/S instead post →
- Compares companies on price-to-sales relative to growth and revenue base rather than market cap alone when judging valuation post →
- Prioritizes giving followers accurate information over getting personal credit for covering a stock first post →
- Keep an excel journal of (paper) trades with chart screenshots, the reasoning for the trade, and your timeframe or stop-loss post →
- For fundamental analysis, track metrics like TAM, ROIC, gross margin, SAM, and bottleneck, and write down the thesis, key metrics, and exit strategy post →
- Deliberately read well-argued opposing perspectives rather than only articles that confirm your existing view. post →
- Use AI as a research tool but stay skeptical of its output; you must understand the subject well enough to ask it the right questions rather than blindly copy-pasting its answers. post →
- Evaluate arguments on their reasoning and whether they can be countered, not on who turns out to be right; avoid only consuming information that confirms your existing view. post →
- Discovered the stock idea through a trade fair connected to his day job, rather than from screening or social media. post →
- Found that Nikkiso doesn't have earnings calls like typical companies, so he needs to find a good alternative way to follow/track the company before considering a position. post →
- Does his own in-depth research into supply chains and companies before forming views, even when he doesn't publish it. post →
- On earnings calls, listen for management's confidence level on whether record profit margins are structural (AI-driven, permanent) versus a cyclical peak that will mean-revert. post →
- Look for binding multi-year customer contracts (2027-2028) as evidence that current demand is structural rather than a temporary spike. post →
- Lowers his add/buy target after a disappointing earnings call post →
- Reads about one investing/decision-making book per month to build knowledge, favoring lesser-known titles on capital sizing, psychology, and biases post →
- reads industry analyst reports (e.g. the CICC SiC/GaN report) to validate and refine stock theses post →
- Annualizes multi-year stock-based comp grants before comparing dollar amounts across companies, rather than judging headline lump-sum figures in isolation post →
- Converts his equity research into an audio podcast so he can consume it during ~2 hours of daily driving, given his 12-hour work days limit other research time post →
- Uses a standardized Deep Research prompt to generate a 20-30 page, ~150-source cited equity report covering business model, competitive advantages, financials, financial health, competitor analysis, opportunities/risks, TAM, pricing, and a 10-year reverse-DCF valuation realism check (excluding SBC from FCF, 3% perpetuity growth, 10% required return) as the first step of researching any company post →
- Feeds NotebookLM the Deep Research report, the company's annual and latest 3 quarterly reports, and the annual reports of its 2 main competitors, mainly to compare risks and opportunities across all of them post →
- Pulls roughly 9 standard financial charts (overview, revenue & growth, gross margin & operating profit, FCF & FCF margin, ROIC/ROE, P/E & forward P/E, expected revenue/FCF, stock-based comp, R&D-to-revenue) into his Gemini deep-dive and final report for every company he researches post →
- Generates a 15-30 minute NotebookLM audio overview (detailed, long format) using a fixed prompt asking for a two-host investor-focused deep dive synthesizing his research, the company's reports, and competitor reports, to consume during commute/work/exercise post →
- Only listens to earnings calls for companies he already owns or has genuine interest in; it is not where he starts research on a new company post →
- Runs deep-dive research and listens to generated podcasts while driving to make use of commute time post →
- Sets Google alerts on companies he follows and monitors official newswire outlets (Business Wire, PR Newswire, GlobeNewswire) for market news post →
- Prepares an earnings preview in advance so he knows exactly what to look for and can summarize results quickly post →
- Distinguishes companies with steady, easily-met demand (trade at parity) from critical supply-chain bottlenecks facing desperate institutional demand (justify a persistent premium) post →
- Runs a 10-year reverse DCF to determine the FCF a company needs to deliver, then compares it to TAM and SAM to judge realism before doing further research post →
- Starts every high-growth stock valuation with a reverse DCF over 10 years to see what FCF the company needs to generate to justify the current price post →
- Compares the reverse-DCF FCF target against the company's Full Potential, TAM, and SAM to judge realism post →
- Favors companies with positive free cash flow and a cash-protected downside post →
- Uses AI for research, but the differentiator is human synthesis — understanding the output well enough to ask great follow-up questions rather than just consuming AI-generated output post →
- Prefers individual stocks over sector ETFs so he can follow earnings calls closely and study specific companies in depth. post →
- Switched research tools from Gemini to Perplexity AI to allow multiple deep dives per day instead of being capped at one by Gemini's hourly token limit post →
- Refreshes Business Wire continuously ahead of scheduled earnings releases so he can post analysis immediately post →
- Refreshes Business Wire continuously to catch earnings releases as they go live post →
- Watches SpaceX's Starlink capex cadence as a read-through signal for Filtronic's business post →
- With this kind of backlog, production should be your only focus post →
- Why would I invest in a stock I don't like? I think the upside potential is way higher than the downside potential. I like the risk reward. post →
timing 24
- Uses how prior corrections (e.g. April) played out as a signal for when to buy into the current dip. post →
- Treat a company facing strong internal execution but external commodity-price headwinds as a 'wait and see' situation for a market recovery, rather than acting immediately. post →
- Waits for earnings results before adding to a position rather than adding ahead of the print post →
- Avoids investing at peak hype, such as with IPOs post →
- You can never time the market post →
- Buys into whichever volatile sector is undervalued at the given moment, expecting the favored sector to change every few months post →
- Define your time horizon before buying a new stock post →
- Just don't time the market post →
- Watches for price breaking back above the 21-day SMA after testing it as a recurring bullish setup that has historically preceded sharp rallies post →
- Timing the market is largely luck post →
- A stock pumping right before its own earnings report is often a good sign post →
- When a long-term thesis takes years to play out, the main risk of entering early is opportunity cost, not being wrong post →
- In no rush to deploy freed-up cash; waits for macro dislocations (e.g. geopolitical shocks) to create buying opportunities post →
- In no hurry to redeploy capital; expects ongoing war/geopolitical conflict to create additional buying opportunities post →
- Entering a position right after earnings is often too late if the call merely confirms already-expected figures post →
- Monitors certain positions every earnings cycle and re-evaluates whether to keep holding based on results post →
- Wait until after the SpaceX IPO before buying post →
- Sits on cash and waits for a more meaningful market pullback rather than buying or selling based on momentum or price action post →
- Uses the 20-day SMA as a trend filter: price above it signals a bullish trend, below it signals a bearish trend post →
- Looks at the 20-day SMA to determine if the market is bullish post →
- Holds cash specifically to deploy during short-term market drops rather than trading in and out of positions post →
- Waits for financials to improve before recalculating risk/reward on stocks with no protected downside post →
- Pullbacks are the best time to re-arrange your portfolio; if you missed prior big waves, now is the time to enter post →
- Waits for earnings results before deciding to add to a position post →
psychology 90
- On down days, zoom out — you don't have to zoom out far to see green again post →
- The main difficulty for most investors isn't strategy, it's staying consistent over time post →
- It ain't about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. post →
- Zoom out to the 1-year view rather than reacting to short-term drawdowns; red weeks are part of the green weeks post →
- Takes a long-term vision on every company he owns and considers an update every 3 months more than enough. post →
- Don't doubt a company just because the price bars turn red with nothing fundamentally changed - a clear vision on a company always wins long-term post →
- Be skeptical of hype around any stock that has gone up ~1,000% since the April lows — heavy chatter follows big moves regardless of underlying merit. post →
- Consistency and authenticity are the most important part post →
- Consistency is the most difficult but most important part of the process post →
- Long-term investing is the easiest and least stressful strategy, yet few people successfully do nothing (avoid overtrading/reacting). post →
- Moved from checking portfolio/positions daily to reviewing on a monthly basis post →
- Investing is about what is really happening, not what you want to happen post →
- Doing nothing is an active choice — avoids interrupting long-term compounding because of a 30-day sentiment shift post →
- Zooms out to YTD performance rather than reacting to a single bad month post →
- Patient investors will be rewarded in the end post →
- Mainly buys and holds; short-term dips do not matter if you are just holding through the thesis post →
- When a position moves against you, the price going down is the last thing to care about if the original investment thesis still holds. post →
- Stubbornness gets you nowhere in investing — the goal isn't to be right, it's to find the truth and make better decisions, which requires being willing to change your mind. post →
- Views short-term timing of entries as largely luck rather than skill. post →
- Just hold post →
- I just keep invested even amid high macro/tariff uncertainty, rather than raising cash. post →
- Does not panic-sell high-conviction assets during geopolitical scares post →
- Just start investing/learning and improve along the way post →
- We all make mistakes, learning from them is more important post →
- There will always be a next opportunity post →
- Zoom out and don't let short-term noise (oil/inflation) break a multi-year thesis (AI tailwinds) post →
- In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine — reminds himself of this daily in volatile markets post →
- If you don't know why you hold a stock, you'll likely sell on a drawdown out of panic rather than understanding post →
- Shares his trades publicly but takes personal responsibility for the outcomes rather than blindly following others post →
- Research creates conviction, and patience is one of the most important traits an investor can have post →
- Most investors chase fast, easy money, but there is no such thing — patience is required. post →
- Approves of a 'coma portfolio' approach: hold a few positions, size them once, then leave them alone and let them work. post →
- When you buy companies you really admire, it's easier to hold through the drawdowns. post →
- Deliberately searches for posts that are bearish on stocks he loves, reads the arguments, and tries to come up with counterarguments on the spot, even without posting them publicly post →
- Feeds the algorithm likes and time on posts that conflict with his own view, to keep seeing opposing perspectives instead of an echo chamber post →
- Stay invested even during personally busy or difficult periods post →
- As a long-term investor you have to sweat out periods of geopolitical turmoil rather than react to them post →
- Learn from your emotions during drawdowns — if you're panicking, use it as a lesson to be better positioned next time; the market recovers post →
- Short-term mechanics don't matter to him because he holds long term post →
- Views short-seller reports as designed to create market fear and capitalize on downward momentum rather than reflect fundamentals post →
- Buying a stock without conviction is the real mistake, not missing an opportunity. post →
- Treats this as a safe, slow-moving stock expected to appreciate over time rather than one expected to hit crazy numbers soon. post →
- Regrets letting a scary pre-earnings drop override his own gut feeling/conviction on a name. post →
- Only re-examines an existing position's thesis once cracks show up in price action, by which point it can be too late to sell well. post →
- Accepts that during busy periods he can't do much research and should not chase hype stocks during those windows. post →
- Internalizing the lessons learned from losses is what separates a good investor from a bad one. post →
- Relies on a decision-making framework specifically to guard against bad days, not because it's needed on good days. post →
- Tries to learn from his investing mistakes rather than dwelling on them. post →
- Watches for the endowment effect — the tendency to overvalue a stock once you own it — and consciously ranks holdings on facts rather than attachment to avoid never selling post →
- You can't time the market, but sometimes moves work out in your favor anyway post →
- Says whatever management comments on the situation, he won't take it at face value — trust, once broken, isn't restored by a statement. post →
- Believes undervalued shares will eventually be recognized by the market and advises staying calm through drawdowns rather than reacting post →
- Finds it psychologically difficult to buy back into a stock at a higher price than he previously watched it at, or to buy a stock he was already tracking after it has risen post →
- Considers it normal for a stock to retrace after spiking sharply intraday, attributing it to swing traders taking quick gains post →
- Views sharp pullbacks after huge intraday spikes (e.g. +100% in an hour) as normal swing-trader profit-taking rather than a bearish signal post →
- I just share my research. It's up to you to pull the trigger. post →
- Tries not to prefer one market/sector based on cost basis, only on current thesis conviction post →
- Controlled the saving side of compounding early — no streaming services, no fancy clothes, minimal spend on food/drinks — because money spent on those is lost and can never compound. post →
- Prefers talking to people with different/opposing views over people he agrees with, to be challenged and learn post →
- Mostly just holds his stocks; if he does sell, he will only buy back in at a lower price than he sold for, since his pride can't handle repurchasing higher than his exit price. post →
- Increased retail/social-media attention and day-trading activity in a stock raises short-term volatility but doesn't change the long-term trend for a long-term investor. post →
- Expects short-term volatility/dips within a long-term bullish trend and doesn't treat them as thesis-breaking. post →
- You don't have to follow the stock market 24/7 to gain life-changing returns post →
- As long as you learn from a frustrating trading experience, it has value post →
- Tries to learn from experiences, viewing failure as part of success post →
- Learning from investing lessons is what makes you a better investor long-term post →
- Prepare for the worst but pray for the best when setting expectations for the next half. post →
- Be wary of subscription pitches that trigger urgency or FOMO ('offer expires in 8 hours') — that's a psychological sales tactic, not a signal of genuine value. post →
- As a long-term investor sitting on large gains, trust management through a difficult stretch rather than reacting emotionally. post →
- You will always feel like you're late to a trade — that feeling shouldn't stop you from investing. post →
- Inhale the pain of a loss and use it as motivation rather than being discouraged by it. post →
- Views market pullbacks as temporary and as opportunities for the patient investor rather than reasons to panic. post →
- Find a quality company and sit tight through drawdowns for the long run rather than reacting to volatility post →
- Improve 1% every day (the Kaizen philosophy) — small, consistent gains compound into large results over time; don't chase big wins, make small ones consistent post →
- There is no future in the past — learn from mistakes and move on rather than dwelling on them post →
- Apply the 1% philosophy as a learning curve, not as a search for daily return gains — write down what you learned each day post →
- Improve 1% each day — sounds easy but discipline is what makes it work post →
- An ATM announcement is an option, not an obligation, and is common practice among space companies — don't panic or blame management over dilution fears alone post →
- Doesn't try to predict or call market bottoms; stays patient with cash rather than timing entries post →
- Stays patient and doesn't chase adding to positions after a large rally, even anticipating a possible short but strong bearish pullback post →
- Does not sell long-term bullish positions just because of short-term drops post →
- Treats recent declines from all-time highs reached within the last two months as short-term when the position was built over a year ago post →
- Rides out short-term pain in a stock as long as he believes in its long-term plan post →
- Conviction is self-built by monitoring the underlying companies closely, rather than monitoring their stock prices, which reduces stress during dips post →
- Doesn't let short-term price action or shaky macro conditions shake his conviction post →
- Doesn't worry about short-term price action when happy with the entry level post →
- As long as you know the strengths and weaknesses of your investing philosophy and stick to it consistently, you'll outperform most investors post →
- Recognizes that frustration and public arguing increase during bearish market runs post →
- Stays careful even when earnings are looking great post →
- Even knowing earnings numbers ahead of time doesn't tell you how the market/stock will react post →
other 28
- Does not swing trade post →
- Spending less time on X, just posting his own research and seeing where it goes rather than chasing engagement post →
- We just buy and hold post →
- Does not buy leveraged ETFs; invests for the long-term rather than trading them post →
- Diversifies his portfolio across all layers of the AI stack post →
- Plans to keep sharing his research the way he does now post →
- Buys single stocks rather than index ETFs, though he doesn't view either approach as wrong. post →
- Having a clear business case/strategy for a position makes decisions (holding, trimming, exiting) far easier. post →
- Only trades common shares, not options, partly because options are difficult to buy in Belgium post →
- Prefers individual stock picking over ETFs, crypto, or commodities for capital allocation post →
- Commits to being transparent and sharing his own research and transactions publicly post →
- I always post my buys and sells. post →
- Has read about scaling out of positions using Fibonacci levels but doesn't fully trust charts/technical analysis. post →
- The only return that matters is the return since you personally started investing in the company post →
- Views pre-revenue technology bets as asymmetric only while the price stays low; the higher the stock goes the less asymmetric (i.e. less attractive) the risk/reward becomes post →
- As soon as I buy a stock, I share the price with my reasoning on X post →
- Normally makes long-term positions rather than short-term trades; the recent burst of ~10 decisions in 2 months was unusual, driven by an unusual number of opportunities post →
- Keeps his portfolio transparent and shares the ins and outs of how he invests publicly post →
- Avoids investing in insurance companies post →
- Invests in waves (thematic cycles) rather than single names post →
- You don't need high-risk microcap companies to double your money — a large, well-managed company with a healthy balance sheet and broad strategic exposure can do it too. post →
- Stays transparent with all the moves he makes on the page. post →
- Options trading is not straightforward from Belgium, limiting his ability to use strategies like selling puts post →
- Deliberately avoids talking about every hype company available, limiting content even though it costs him algorithmic reach post →
- Good executives don't care about the stock price tomorrow, but about the stock price in 10 years post →
- Stocks without a clear bottom or top get traded heavily on market sentiment, negative during declines and positive during rallies post →
- In negative-sentiment markets investors focus only on downside risk, in positive-sentiment markets only on upside, causing big swings with no real bottom or top post →
- I'm a long-term investor and don't change stocks too often. If I do, I post that. Full transparency. post →