NBIS
watching
Conviction over time
Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish
Trades
What he actually did, newest first
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28 Jul 26
Wants to buy before earnings but sticks to his principle of not buying right before an earnings report
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30 Mar 26
not buying the Bitcoin-mining-to-AI/HPC pivot dip yet
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30 Mar 26
not buying the Bitcoin-mining-to-AI/HPC pivot dip yet
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30 Mar 26
not buying the Bitcoin-mining-to-AI/HPC pivot dip yet
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30 Mar 26
not buying the Bitcoin-mining-to-AI/HPC pivot dip yet
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30 Mar 26
bought OUST today
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29 Mar 26
Might add more when the broader market de-risking shifts; not buying the current dip
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29 Mar 26
Plans to start deploying his record 20% cash position starting next week into positions not yet decided
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13 Feb 26
sold a couple of months ago
Reasoning trail
Every post mentioning NBIS, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised
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17 Aug 26
Argues IREN is deliberately protecting margins and staying patient on power pricing while NBIS prioritizes closing deals; sees the power supply/demand gap widening in IREN's favor, so no need to lower price.
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28 Jul 26
Bloom Energy up 7% after crushing earnings (EPS +680% YoY, revenue +166% YoY); FY26 revenue guidance raised to $3.9-4.2B and hyperscalers validated onsite power, but the release didn't address the Oracle Project Jupiter delay, Hunterbrook scandium claims, or the Nebius buildout timeline — expects more clarity on the call.
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28 Jul 26
Bloom Energy down 13% ahead of earnings; lays out reasonable expectations (EPS 0.41, ~10% revenue growth) and the three things to watch — the Oracle Project Jupiter permit delay, Hunterbrook's scandium sourcing claims, and the Nebius deployment timeline — and says he's sticking to his rule of not buying right before earnings even though he might regret it.
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14 Jul 26
Says sentiment on $NBIS is currently negative but he believes the company will be fine.
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14 Jul 26
Confirms he is only long $IREN at the moment, not $NBIS.
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14 Jul 26
Highlights $NBIS's new multi-year deal with Reflection AI as a win in capturing the ~30% of AI compute demand outside hyperscalers, referencing Chernin's demand-curve breakdown; sees $IREN as targeting similar deals.
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10 Jul 26
Gives his view that Nebius is comparatively stronger in most of Europe while IREN is stronger in the US and Australia, but says this doesn't really reflect the underlying business model.
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10 Jul 26
Long comparative analysis of NBIS vs IREN business models across hardware/cloud/application layers, Hyperscaler demand, and enterprise strategy (Mirantis for IREN vs the Nebius token factory), stating a deliberately neutral stance with pros and cons for each.
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10 Jul 26
Explains that the application/token-factory layer is the third layer IREN lacks, letting developers pay per token instead of renting GPUs by the hour, unlike Nebius which offers this.
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10 Jul 26
Clarifies that a quote about building 'from dirt up' refers to Nebius's third (application/token) layer, which vertically integrates beyond IREN's current two-layer (hardware+cloud) offering.
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09 Jul 26
Detailed notes from Nebius co-founder Roman Chernin: most AI growth still ahead as adoption just takes off; ~50-70% of demand from Hyperscalers (namechecking META and GOOGL); limited enterprise demand so far outside a few names (Revolut, Booking, Shopify, Jane Street); describes the three infrastructure layers and Nebius's integrated hardware+software strategy; open-source models seen as catching up and unlocking enterprise fine-tuning.
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02 Jul 26
Detailed rebuttal defending his SBC/revenue critique of IREN: their stock-based comp is ~23% of revenue vs 11% (Nebius), 9% (CoreWeave), 17% (Mara) and just 3% (Micron), which combined with existing remuneration is roughly 26% of revenue to the C-level; says the package isn't necessary given IREN is underperforming peers while earning plenty relative to revenue, and he'd prefer performance-based comp.
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20 May 26
Author says Nebius is making the right moves while he's still waiting for Iren to act rather than just talk, and clarifies he owns Iren but not Nebius.
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25 Apr 26
Bullish long-term framing on $IREN and $NBIS as beneficiaries of a power bottleneck as hyperscalers buy up all available power capacity.
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24 Apr 26
Argues that Nebius's outperformance vs IREN is distorted by a $5.2b cash injection from selling Russian assets, and questions how that's accounted for in the comparison — analytical rebuttal, not a stated stance of his own.
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24 Apr 26
Pushes back on a CAGR comparison between NBIS (since 2024 relisting) and IREN (since 2021), arguing the comparison should start from IREN's 2023 pivot to AI datacenters for fairness.
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12 Apr 26
Lays out a broad catalyst calendar across his sector watchlist spanning Q2 2026 through Q3 2027, covering scaling, energization, acquisition closes, product shipments, launches, and constellation milestones for a wide range of AI infrastructure, space, and defense names.
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11 Apr 26
Friendly reply to a follower listing his own AI-related holdings ($TSLA, $MRVL, $NBIS, $MU), calling them all great companies; no ownership claim by the author himself.
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30 Mar 26
In reply to a post about CIFR, IREN, NBIS and WULF all selling off together, says he's not buying the dip on those names yet, but did buy OUST today.
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29 Mar 26
Defends IREN's business model against a depreciation concern, saying depreciation is expected given they buy the GPUs, and doesn't see it as a major problem since he doesn't expect Nvidia GPU costs to drop much over the next 5 years.
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29 Mar 26
At a record 20% cash position (from not adding cash rather than selling), plans to redeploy starting next week but probably won't buy the IREN dip near-term despite staying bullish long-term. Views IREN as the high risk-high reward datacenter play since it buys and leases Nvidia GPUs (needing more cash than pure power providers), explaining the $6B ATM option as a real, non-noise possibility tied to funding future GPU purchases for new hyperscaler deals, likely activated only after a new deal is announced. Sees the broader market still de-risking, favoring safer names like PL and NBIS over pre-revenue names like OKLO.
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27 Mar 26
First entry (#1) in a 10-company high-growth thread: highlights $NBIS's 3-year revenue CAGR of 206% and describes Nebius Group as an Amsterdam-based full-stack AI infrastructure and GPU cloud company.
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21 Mar 26
Shares a chart of top growth stock performers of 2025 vs YTD 2026, asking followers which names appear in both lists (hinting there are 3). Attached image is a 2025 top-growth-performers list: PL +375%, IREN +307%, OPEN +298%, OKLO +292%, ONDS +260%, ASTS +259%, CIFR +249%, MP +246%, JMIA +238%, HOOD +226%, NBIS +223%, QBTS +219%, MU +216%, RKLB +177%, EOSE +169%.
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16 Mar 26
Highlights Nebius's expanded partnership with Meta: up to $12B dedicated AI compute capacity (built on NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform, starting early 2027) plus up to $15B in additional flexible compute capacity over five years. Notes NBIS up 28% last week and now up 14% in pre-market.
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14 Mar 26
Thesis post: major tech layoffs (AMZN, META, ORCL, XYZ, CRM, ASML) are being redirected into AI R&D and capex, not signs of weak fundamentals. He is bullish on companies that control the emerging AI infrastructure bottlenecks — memory/HBM, packaging/OSAT, server/rack integration, networking silicon, photonics/optical, and power/thermal/grid — naming SK Hynix, Samsung, MU, ASE Technology, AMKR, JCET, SMCI, DELL, HPE, Foxconn, AVGO, MRVL, CSCO, ANET, Ayar Labs, ALAB, CRDO, COHR, LITE, VRT, MOD, NVT, SU.PA, IREN, NBIS, CIFR.
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11 Mar 26
Says he trusts NBIS more than CRWV to be up and running with major capacity by 2030.
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11 Mar 26
Highlights NVIDIA's $2B investment in Nebius to co-develop full-stack AI cloud infrastructure, calling it very bullish for Nebius shareholders.
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03 Mar 26
Notes that $NBIS is making strong moves outside of the headline news about its gigawatt-scale AI factory approval.
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27 Feb 26
Lists his 'unpopular opinions' as head-to-head preferences across sectors: GOOGL over NVDA, FLNC over EOSE, AMPX over ONDS, HIMS over NVO, PL over ASTS, IREN over NBIS, and NU over SOFI.
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13 Feb 26
Curated AI-boom sector watchlist across cybersecurity, datacenters, energy grid, nuclear, solar, space, semiconductors, software/AI platforms, and humanoid robotics; marks which companies he personally owns.
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13 Feb 26
Sold his $NBIS position a couple of months ago and is watching for a re-entry opportunity.
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12 Feb 26
Recaps Nebius's Q4 results: a double miss (revenue and EPS) with no new deals announced, but highlights the 547% revenue surge, swing to positive adjusted EBITDA, and strong cash position as evidence of aggressive AI infrastructure scaling despite ongoing net losses.
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10 Feb 26
Reacts positively to Nebius acquiring Tavily, viewing the real-time search addition as making NBIS a stronger full-stack AI infrastructure play.
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05 Feb 26
Responding to a $1T market cap call for IREN and NBIS, author calls it excessive but reaffirms he's a big bull on both, saying even $100B market cap would already be a great outcome.