AXTI
watching
Conviction over time
Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish
Reasoning trail
Every post mentioning AXTI, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised
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10 Apr 26
With his portfolio 20% in cash, lists a set of stocks he plans to research over the weekend before deciding whether to deploy capital.
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06 Apr 26
Plays devil's advocate on AXTI dilution news, reasoning that an ATM raise while the stock is up big could be the rational move for management to get debt-free cash, even though it hurts existing shareholders.
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07 Mar 26
Announces a new listenable article about the AI supply chain, teasing why AXTI, AAOI and LITE are critical bottlenecks, why SK Hynix is completely sold out in 2026, and why ASML and LRCX are lagging a bit behind.
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04 Mar 26
Shares a full article breaking down the AI chip supply chain into 4 phases and 13 layers, listing companies at each stage from raw materials to hyperscalers.
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01 Mar 26
Engages with a thesis on Soitec/AXTI and the CPO/silicon photonics inflection expected 2027-2028, asking how many quarters ahead the market might start front-running SOI substrate demand and whether foundry capacity reservations (TSMC, Tower) are the key signal to watch for the supply squeeze reaching Soitec.