Conviction over time

Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish

Trades

What he actually did, newest first

• 16 Jul 26

  sold ASML shares a couple of months ago

  sell post →
• 16 Jul 26

  bought SK Hynix with proceeds from selling ASML

  buy post →
• 01 Jul 26

  no trades executed this month; allocation shifts are purely from price action

  none post →
• 12 Jun 26

  sold ASML shares to rotate into SK Hynix

  sell post →
• 12 Jun 26

  rotated ASML sale proceeds into SK Hynix

  buy post →
• 31 May 26

  Bought some Wolfspeed in the beginning of the month.

  buy post →
• 31 May 26

  Bought some Fluence in the beginning of the month.

  buy post →
• 31 May 26

  Sold his TMDX shares.

  sell post →
• 31 May 26

  Sold ASML shares (+13% in 3 months) to fund a SK Hynix purchase.

  sell post →
• 31 May 26

  Bought SK Hynix using proceeds from selling ASML; wishes he had bought more three months ago (+114% since).

  buy post →

Reasoning trail

Every post mentioning ASML, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised

• 16 Jul 26

  Says he'd pick ASML over TSM, but he sold his ASML shares to buy SK Hynix a couple of months ago and would now pick Hynix over both.

  mixed medium post →
• 16 Jul 26

  Notes TSM beat earnings like ASML and AEHR did, yet the stock is down 4% amid a broader red market; expects sentiment to shift as more companies keep beating estimates this earnings season.

  bullish medium post →
• 15 Jul 26

  Very bullish recap of $ASML's Q2 beat: revenue and EPS both beat, gross margin beat guidance on strong Installed Base Management growth, and FY26 guidance was raised significantly; highlights broad AI-driven demand, robust order intake, and planned capacity expansions.

  bullish high post →
• 14 Jul 26

  Preview ahead of $ASML's earnings tomorrow, flagging EUV/High-NA adoption timelines, US export restrictions on China sales, order backlog strength, foundry capex driven by AI demand, and ASML's own capacity constraints as the key things to watch.

  neutral medium post →
• 13 Jul 26

  Expects market sentiment to shift positively as earnings season kicks off with $ASML and $TSM, predicting new record earnings and CapEx cycles that will prove AI demand doubters wrong.

  bullish high post →
• 01 Jul 26

  Monthly portfolio update: MTD -3.7%, YTD +94.1%, no trades this month, allocation shifts purely from price action across 14 positions including Planet Labs, Ouster, Rocket Lab, Marvell, SK Hynix, ASM International, Palantir, Fluence, Hims, Google, Iren, Wolfspeed, Amprius and Filtronic.

  mixed high post →
• 22 Jun 26

  Teases a newly found small-cap Japanese supplier to aerospace, space, semiconductor, and medical industries, citing confirmed customers (TSM, GE, BA, AIR, UMC, ASE) and likely unconfirmed customers (SPCX, ASML, INTC, Samsung, Blue Origin, NASA). Describes healthy margins, strong revenue growth, and near-monopoly positioning in space/aerospace, but admits no experience with the Japanese market and asks for guidance; notes nobody else on X has discussed it yet.

  bullish medium post →
• 12 Jun 26

  Argues SK Hynix still has room to grow given a forward P/E of 5.81 versus stronger ROIC/ROE/margins than ASML; sold his ASML shares to rotate into SK Hynix.

  bullish high post →
• 31 May 26

  Monthly portfolio update: MTD +40.4%, YTD +97.8%. Bought WOLF and FLNC early in the month, sold TMDX, and sold ASML to fund a SK Hynix purchase (wishes he'd bought more three months ago). Cash allocation ~11.6% and building slightly via savings, not sales. Reviews all 14 core holdings with performance, allocation and outlook: PL (target $60 by year end, earnings 4/6), RKLB (surged on strong earnings), OUST (long-term hold, no longer buy territory), PLTR (favorite AI software play, #1 holding), SK Hynix (regrets not buying more), AMPX (bullish long-term on batteries/drones), IREN (highest-cost holding, datacenter thesis), MRVL (photonics center, healthy balance sheet), ASM.AS (longest-held, safe-haven, €1,000 target where he may trim), Filtronic (SpaceX GaN amp supplier), WOLF (bullish long-term, BoA target >$80), FLNC (Hyperscaler contracts, next quarters crucial), GOOGL (could become most valuable company), HIMS (small 3.7% allocation, may add).

  bullish high post →
• 23 Apr 26

  Highlights SK Hynix's blowout Q1 earnings (EPS +397% YoY, revenue +197% YoY), a very low PEG of 0.1, tight memory supply, and AI-driven demand; says he's up 50% and believes the rally has further to run.

  bullish high post →
• 11 Apr 26

  Announces he's first place in a stock-picking fantasy league (Fantasy Stock League by @ThetaForgeX and @muted_money), and shares his virtual portfolio including $PL, $AMPX, $PLTR, and $RKLB as favourite real-life picks. Screenshot confirms a portfolio allocation chart topped by PL, AMPX, PLTR, FLNC, RKLB, TMDX, ASML, LOW, LMT, C.

  bullish medium post →
• 23 Mar 26

  Detailed bull case for SK hynix's planned U.S. ADR listing: closes the P/E gap with $MU, offers FX efficiency for USD-denominated capex like ASML EUV equipment, funds HBM market-share defense against Nvidia with zero net dilution, and signals a shift toward Western-style governance that attacks the 'Korea Discount'.

  bullish high post →
• 14 Mar 26

  Thesis post: major tech layoffs (AMZN, META, ORCL, XYZ, CRM, ASML) are being redirected into AI R&D and capex, not signs of weak fundamentals. He is bullish on companies that control the emerging AI infrastructure bottlenecks — memory/HBM, packaging/OSAT, server/rack integration, networking silicon, photonics/optical, and power/thermal/grid — naming SK Hynix, Samsung, MU, ASE Technology, AMKR, JCET, SMCI, DELL, HPE, Foxconn, AVGO, MRVL, CSCO, ANET, Ayar Labs, ALAB, CRDO, COHR, LITE, VRT, MOD, NVT, SU.PA, IREN, NBIS, CIFR.

  bullish medium post →
• 13 Mar 26

  Explains he sold ASML rather than ASM International as a portfolio decision, praises ASML as a great company but says the sale was his own call and he's moving forward.

  mixed medium post →
• 13 Mar 26

  Explains ASML's new advanced-packaging tool (TWINSCAN XT:260) as a bottleneck-breaker for AI chip stacking, framing it as a big positive development

  bullish medium post →
• 11 Mar 26

  Suggests another investor add ASML alongside Visa or Mastercard to their coverage; not stating his own position.

  neutral low post →
• 11 Mar 26

  Explains that ASML likely already runs at full capacity, and discusses how EUV machine lead times (order-to-install) could theoretically be compressed via air freight for parts, double shifts, temporary labor, and extra installation staff.

  neutral low post →
• 10 Mar 26

  Explains ASML won't break existing customer contracts; the extra 20% capacity is about expediting components, double shifts, and prioritizing air freight, which is normal in production facilities.

  bullish low post →
• 10 Mar 26

  Argues SK Hynix accepting a 20% premium on ASML EUV tools proves it has ironclad forward-booked HBM demand from NVDA and hyperscalers; sees the market pricing SK Hynix at a 5.2x forward P/E as completely disconnected from the strength of structural AI demand.

  bullish high post →
• 09 Mar 26

  Says he just sold his ASML position at $1.257 in response to a comment about an 8% intraday swing.

  neutral medium post →
• 09 Mar 26

  Author downplays the risk of a Dutch unrealised gains tax law hitting ASML, noting it's also US-listed.

  neutral low post →
• 09 Mar 26

  Author sold his ASML shares today, bought at €676 six months ago, closed at €1,085 for a 60.5% gain. Still likes the business (EUV monopoly) but felt he captured the best of the trade; also holds ASM.AS in the same semiconductor equipment wave so doesn't need both, and wants to reallocate to a different investment wave. No company-specific reason to sell.

  neutral medium post →
• 07 Mar 26

  Announces a new listenable article about the AI supply chain, teasing why AXTI, AAOI and LITE are critical bottlenecks, why SK Hynix is completely sold out in 2026, and why ASML and LRCX are lagging a bit behind.

  mixed medium post →
• 04 Mar 26

  Shares a full article breaking down the AI chip supply chain into 4 phases and 13 layers, listing companies at each stage from raw materials to hyperscalers.

  neutral low post →
• 27 Feb 26

  Explains a dispute over how a fantasy stock-picking game handled his 8-hour pick window after an ASML pick ran out, referencing his Palantir and Low's picks as game context.

  neutral low post →