AAOI
watching
Conviction over time
Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish
Reasoning trail
Every post mentioning AAOI, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised
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27 Apr 26
Agrees that AAOI's short-report-driven sell-off is a similar example to the current situation.
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12 Apr 26
Lays out a broad catalyst calendar across his sector watchlist spanning Q2 2026 through Q3 2027, covering scaling, energization, acquisition closes, product shipments, launches, and constellation milestones for a wide range of AI infrastructure, space, and defense names.
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10 Apr 26
Says he researched AAOI and thinks it's a great company, but he missed the entry at $80 two weeks earlier when he was researching around $125.
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05 Apr 26
States he is a fan of AAOI, PL, PLTR and VKTX, but not a fan of DUOL.
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03 Apr 26
Half-joking pattern-spotting post: PL, AAOI, VKTX, and PLTR are all led by founder-CEOs with science PhDs, framed as a semi-serious stock-picking heuristic.
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03 Apr 26
Discusses vertical integration in optics, noting LITE/COHR rely on companies like FN while AAOI keeps everything in-house, and asks whether that's a competitive advantage.
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03 Apr 26
Asks what margins AAOI earns on its 800G transceivers following news of a new hyperscaler order.
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29 Mar 26
Agrees with an analysis on the photonics transition, noting AAOI, LITE, and COHR have stronger current financials than SOI and IQE, but says SIVE is the one name whose financials currently look promising to him.
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29 Mar 26
Points out that AAOI, LITE and COHR have genuinely rising revenues and gross margins, and warns the reader against chasing other photonics names with weaker fundamentals hoping for the same result.
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17 Mar 26
Suggests a bounce back for AAOI could begin off Jensen's comments.
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12 Mar 26
Clarifies his ATM post was about long-term shareholder math, not trading mechanics, and agrees IREN's $6B ATM hits differently than a $250M one given relative market caps
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12 Mar 26
Explains what ATM offerings are and why they pressure share price, using IREN's $6B and AAOI's $250M ATM filings as the trigger examples; cautionary framing on dilution risk
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12 Mar 26
Raises AAOI's history of building expensive customer-specific factories (citing a 2018 Amazon-related CapEx problem) as a risk given its vertical integration and lack of outsourcing
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12 Mar 26
Questions what gives confidence that AAOI can expand capacity smoothly given its historical lumpiness with scaling and CapEx
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08 Mar 26
Lists names he's researching more closely in the AI/data center supply chain space: Marvell, SK Hynix, Vertiv, Amkor, Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum.
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07 Mar 26
Announces a new listenable article about the AI supply chain, teasing why AXTI, AAOI and LITE are critical bottlenecks, why SK Hynix is completely sold out in 2026, and why ASML and LRCX are lagging a bit behind.
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06 Mar 26
Argues MRVL's $3.8B acquisition of Celestial AI and XConn positions it as the long-term architectural winner in optical AI infrastructure, ahead of AVGO (copper) and NVDA (proprietary optics); says AAOI is good but MRVL is the foundational winner.
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05 Mar 26
Acknowledges that his supply chain research/map omitted several companies including $AAOI, clarifying the purpose was mapping the supply chain, not an exhaustive buy list.
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02 Mar 26
Questions whether AAOI still has much upside left given its market cap has already grown 500% in two years.
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27 Feb 26
Lists companies he plans to research over the weekend: IBRX, AAOI, UAMY, LITE, POET, TE, AMPX.
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27 Feb 26
Not yet invested in $AAOI, still researching the broader industry to find the right entry point.
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27 Feb 26
Bullish thesis on AAOI's shift to 800G/1.6T transceivers amid the data center upgrade cycle, flagging a potential $378M monthly revenue run rate by mid-2027 and margin execution as the metric to watch next.
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13 Feb 26
Agrees that photonics names (LITE, COHR, AAOI, ALMU, POET) should have been included in his list.