Conviction over time

Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish

Trades

What he actually did, newest first

• 16 Jul 26

  sold, considers it a past mistake

  sell post →
• 16 Jul 26

  sold, considers it a past mistake

  sell post →
• 16 Jul 26

  bought, considers it a past mistake

  buy post →
• 08 May 26

  Sold at $400, self-deprecating that it turned out to be near the bottom

  sell @ 400.0 post →
• 24 Apr 26

  Recently sold, did not fully reinvest the proceeds

  sell post →
• 24 Apr 26

  Recently sold, did not fully reinvest the proceeds

  sell post →
• 22 Apr 26

  Original entry.

  buy @ 30.0 post →
• 22 Apr 26

  Sold after noticing cracks in the original thesis, well below the $150 peak.

  sell @ 70.0 post →
• 22 Apr 26

  Original entry.

  buy @ 240.0 post →
• 22 Apr 26

  Sold after early signs of AI disruption to the business, below the $550 peak.

  sell @ 400.0 post →

Reasoning trail

Every post mentioning CRWD, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised

• 16 Jul 26

  Defends his long-term thesis despite recent declines, listing cost bases across several holdings, and admits past mistakes (sold CRWD and SIVE, bought POET).

  bullish high post →
• 09 Jul 26

  Notes from RBRK's CTO pitch on cybersecurity/ransomware statistics and an anecdote about AI agents colluding to change a company's security policy; also credits CRWD as a peer. Frames cybersecurity as a relatively safe way to get AI exposure.

  neutral low post →
• 08 May 26

  Admits he sold CRWD at $400, joking he sold near the bottom given the stock's rise toward $525.

  bearish low post →
• 24 Apr 26

  States he never trims — he either believes in a company fully or sells it entirely — and mentions recently selling $HOOD and $CRWD without fully reinvesting, effectively trimming his overall portfolio exposure.

  neutral medium post →
• 22 Apr 26

  Reflects that stock-picking is his greatest strength but selling is his weakness, citing HOOD (bought $30, rode to $150, sold at $70 after noticing thesis cracks) and CRWD (bought $240, rode to $550, sold at $400 after AI disruption signs); asks whether to double down on his strength or fix the weak spot.

  mixed medium post →
• 11 Apr 26

  Sold his CRWD shares (bought at $240, sold at $400), happy with the gains but staying away from the stock for now given how fast/unpredictable the cybersecurity environment has become.

  neutral medium post →
• 09 Apr 26

  Sold entire CRWD position at $400 for 66% profit and exited the cybersecurity sector entirely, citing unpredictability from AI-driven change in the sector; also notes he sold NET a couple months ago; holding proceeds in cash while deciding next move.

  neutral medium post →
• 05 Apr 26

  Monthly portfolio update: up 6.9% in March, led by PL, PLTR, RKLB and AMPX; initiated four new positions (OUST, POET, MRVL, SK Hynix), added to HIMS; TMDX, HOOD, FLNC and IREN declined; plans to cut cash from 20% to 10% and consolidate from 16 to 11 holdings.

  bullish high post →
• 22 Mar 26

  Says Friday's dip reinforces the value of zooming out; short-term noise on oil/inflation doesn't break the multi-year AI tailwind thesis, urges holding conviction. Attached image shows a portfolio table with tickers PL, PLTR, RKLB, ASM, GOOGL, HOOD, CRWD, AMPX and their % change and % of portfolio, all showing large gains (e.g. PL +733.3% at 18.4% of portfolio, PLTR +391.0% at 11.3%).

  bullish high post →
• 12 Mar 26

  Asks followers for input on his $HOOD position (up 122% over a year, ~5% of portfolio), questioning if the company has lost its edge. Attached portfolio screenshot reveals his broader top holdings and allocation weights.

  mixed medium post →
• 11 Mar 26

  Closed his NET position last Monday after about a year with a 58.52% total return, choosing to keep CRWD instead due to double cybersecurity exposure; still believes cybersecurity is a strong AI-adjacent bet and doubts this particular sell decision the most out of four positions sold that day.

  mixed low post →
• 04 Mar 26

  Says he already owns $CRWD and $NET in cybersecurity and won't add another name in the sector, even though he acknowledges the mentioned company has great software.

  neutral medium post →
• 03 Mar 26

  Shares a chart of $DDOG, $CRWD, $NET, and $ZS quarterly revenue growth with a CAGR above 36%, reiterating strong bullish conviction on the cybersecurity sector overall.

  bullish high post →
• 03 Mar 26

  CRWD down 4.4% despite crushing earnings estimates and crossing $5B in recurring revenue faster than any pure cybersecurity firm; core business seen as thriving on consolidation and AI tailwinds.

  bullish medium post →
• 01 Mar 26

  Lists the earnings he'll be watching next week across defense, drone, quantum, crypto and other names, asking followers which companies he's missing. Attached image confirms an earnings calendar for the week of March 02, 2026 including Berkshire, Credo, Riot, BigBear.ai, MongoDB, Plug, QCi, ASTS, Achr, Target, Best Buy, Sea, CrowdStrike, GitLab, Abercrombie, Dycom, Broadcom, Rigetti, Wix, Veeva, Okta, Ooma, Bull, Ciena, Amprius, Marvell, JD.com, IoT names, Costco, and others.

  neutral low post →
• 27 Feb 26

  February portfolio recap: -15.6% for the month but only -0.9% YTD after January's run-up. Attributes the drawdown to a valuation reset in high-conviction AI/software names, volatility in high-beta growth holdings, and resilience from semiconductor/foundational holdings. Made zero trades in February, reaffirms conviction in his 16-company portfolio, framing inactivity as a deliberate choice not to interrupt long-term compounding.

  bullish high post →
• 23 Feb 26

  Step 4/4 of his research method: generate a 15-30 minute two-host NotebookLM audio-overview podcast from the assembled sources to quickly evaluate a company, then decide whether to dig further.

  neutral low post →
• 23 Feb 26

  Step 3/4 of his research method: load NotebookLM with the Deep Research report, the company's annual report, its 3 latest quarterly reports, and the annual reports of its 2 main competitors to compare risks and opportunities.

  neutral low post →
• 23 Feb 26

  Step 2/4 of his research method: add roughly 9 standard financial charts to Gemini (overview, revenue growth, margins, FCF, ROIC/ROE, P/E, projected revenue/FCF, stock-based comp, R&D-to-revenue) before running the deep-dive.

  neutral low post →
• 15 Feb 26

  Confirms the sector being discussed is cybersecurity and names his picks: CRWD, DDOG, NET, ZS.

  neutral low post →
• 13 Feb 26

  Curated AI-boom sector watchlist across cybersecurity, datacenters, energy grid, nuclear, solar, space, semiconductors, software/AI platforms, and humanoid robotics; marks which companies he personally owns.

  bullish medium post →
• 06 Feb 26

  Compares the current pullback across a basket of names to the April 2025 correction, noting the current drawdowns are less severe/more concentrated than April for most names.

  neutral low post →
• 02 Feb 26

  January portfolio update: up 11.56% for the month with no trades made. For the first time in two years PLTR is not his largest holding; PL is now the top position. Full 16-name portfolio with allocation weights disclosed.

  bullish high post →