ENPH
avoiding
Conviction over time
Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish
Reasoning trail
Every post mentioning ENPH, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised
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07 Apr 26
Index post for his Q4 energy-transition thread, listing the 7 waves he tracks (Wind, Green Hydrogen, Solar, Energy Storage, Nuclear, LNG, Mixed companies) and their constituent companies.
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17 Feb 26
Describes solar as a victim of high interest rates and commoditization, with P/S compressed to 1.6x and declining revenue; only $FSLR is seen as investable due to its US-manufacturing moat and utility-scale focus, while residential installer $RUN and component maker $ENPH remain 'dead money' until rates fall significantly.
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12 Feb 26
Frames 2026 as an industrial 'Power Trade' driven by AI demand: bullish on nuclear (CEG repriced as tech, OKLO/SMR speculative on SMRs) and utility-scale solar (FSLR, ENPH), sees an industrial reset in wind (GEV raising guidance, VWS prioritizing value), and is bearish on hydrogen (PLUG) as the market now demands cash flow over chemistry.
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04 Feb 26
Notes ENPH is up 23% pre-market, framing it as shorts capitulating.
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03 Feb 26
ENPH posted a strong Q4 double beat, up 1.5%; US demand hit a two-year high as buyers rushed ahead of expiring tax credits, but Europe remains a major drag and tariffs weigh on margins.