SPCX
avoiding
Conviction over time
Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish
Trades
What he actually did, newest first
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
Reasoning trail
Every post mentioning SPCX, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised
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04 Aug 26
Reports SpaceX Q2 earnings: revenue and EPS both beat, driven by Starlink subscriber growth, AI compute segment acceleration, and Starship reusability progress; notes the stock fell despite the beat.
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04 Aug 26
Previews SpaceX's first public-company earnings report, explains he is not a shareholder but holds Filtronic, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab which are impacted by SpaceX; lists what he'll watch: AI infrastructure capex, Space Force contract execution, Starlink enterprise penetration, and Starship progress.
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21 Jul 26
States he doesn't currently hold $SPCX and dislikes buying close to a stock's IPO.
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21 Jul 26
Says $PL, $RKLB, and Filtronic are within 10% of his price targets and he'd add a lot more to his space holdings; bullish long-term thesis on the space economy (TAM growing from $626B to $1.8T by 2035). Bullish on $RKLB (launch services growth), calls $PL his safest pick given its FCF and ties to $NVDA/$GOOGL, and Filtronic his 'bottleneck' pick on space comms tech validated with $SPCX. Likes $ASTS's potential but flags its cash burn as a risk, and is evaluating a new undisclosed micro-cap.
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25 Jun 26
Author argues PL timed its ATM announcement well, using a stock-price high before the market punished the sector once SpaceX (SPCX) came online.
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24 Jun 26
Author reports Filtronic announced a secondary development contract with the same unnamed US space customer from its March £8m deal, this time for a high-frequency satellite payload module; speculates (unconfirmed) the customer could be Blue Origin or ASTS, drawing a parallel to its earlier SPCX relationship.
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22 Jun 26
Highlights that $PL had a strong day relative to other space stocks, which broadly declined.
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22 Jun 26
Teases a newly found small-cap Japanese supplier to aerospace, space, semiconductor, and medical industries, citing confirmed customers (TSM, GE, BA, AIR, UMC, ASE) and likely unconfirmed customers (SPCX, ASML, INTC, Samsung, Blue Origin, NASA). Describes healthy margins, strong revenue growth, and near-monopoly positioning in space/aerospace, but admits no experience with the Japanese market and asks for guidance; notes nobody else on X has discussed it yet.
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17 Jun 26
Explains SpaceX doesn't need to add cameras to Starlink or take over Planet — they already have enough satellites for Planet's overview use case, and the two work together (Planet's subscription overview vs SpaceX's on-demand detail for defense). SpaceX is focused on defense, not commercial revenue.
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12 Jun 26
Compares SPCX's IPO-day surge to a selloff in other space stocks, arguing the liquidity vacuum and halo effect make PL, ASTS, and RKLB buying opportunities at current levels.
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12 Jun 26
Says it's uncertain what SpaceX stock does near term as it approaches the upper $30s.
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12 Jun 26
Discusses realistic vs targeted timing for SpaceX's IPO first trade.
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12 Jun 26
Reiterates his targeted vs realistic timeline for SpaceX's IPO first trade.
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12 Jun 26
Explains that analysts expect SpaceX's IPO opening trade to be delayed until as late as 1:00PM given the IPO's size.
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12 Jun 26
Informational post on SpaceX's expected IPO opening trade timing versus the standard 9:30 AM market open.
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11 Jun 26
Lays out a three-part framework for how the SPCX IPO affects other space tickers: halo effect, vacuum pressure, and capital outflow, expecting the vacuum pressure effect to show up the next day.