ASTS
watching
Conviction over time
Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish
Price targets
How each level moved over time. The last value is his current one.
Trades
What he actually did, newest first
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
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21 Jul 26
Within 10% of price target; would add a lot more.
Reasoning trail
Every post mentioning ASTS, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised
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21 Jul 26
Explains he prefers individual space stocks over ETFs to follow earnings calls closely; says $ASTS's downside is limited but not compelling enough currently, and would buy if it dips under $40 again like last September.
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21 Jul 26
Says $PL, $RKLB, and Filtronic are within 10% of his price targets and he'd add a lot more to his space holdings; bullish long-term thesis on the space economy (TAM growing from $626B to $1.8T by 2035). Bullish on $RKLB (launch services growth), calls $PL his safest pick given its FCF and ties to $NVDA/$GOOGL, and Filtronic his 'bottleneck' pick on space comms tech validated with $SPCX. Likes $ASTS's potential but flags its cash burn as a risk, and is evaluating a new undisclosed micro-cap.
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17 Jul 26
Explains a simple technical trigger he'd use for AST: a green candle above the 21sma on high volume.
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17 Jul 26
Says ASTS is ideal for swing trading because sentiment swings drive exaggerated moves with no real bottom or top.
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17 Jul 26
Reiterates ASTS trades heavily on market sentiment given lack of a clear bottom or top, unlike a company like PL.
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17 Jul 26
Clarifies his 35% market share figure for AST was applied to Deutsche Bank's 1.75B estimated paying users, not to all global mobile phone users.
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16 Jul 26
Detailed explainer on how he values high-growth stocks: reverse DCF against TAM/SAM to size upside, but focuses primarily on balance-sheet downside protection. For ASTS specifically, models 35% share of Deutsche Bank's 1.75B addressable satellite-service users at $2.5/month and 50% FCF margin implying ~$9.19B FCF, calls the reverse-DCF bull case realistic but flags ASTS has no protected downside (given $3.4B liabilities, $3.0B long-term debt, $1.41B burn rate) unlike PL, so he is waiting for financials to improve before recalculating risk/reward.
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16 Jul 26
Explains his approach to valuing high-growth names like ASTS: does a 10-year reverse DCF to find the FCF the company must generate, checks that against TAM/SAM realism, then researches further; for hard-to-target upside stocks, focuses instead on protecting the downside via book value and cash on hand.
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15 Jul 26
Flags $ASTS as increasingly interesting given the sector-wide trend of space companies securing additional cash beyond ASTS's existing $800m ATM program; plans further research.
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25 Jun 26
Agrees the three space names highlighted (PL, ASTS, RKLB) are great picks.
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25 Jun 26
Author revisits his earlier view that PL's ATM timing was bad, now noting PL's drawdown from ATH (48%) is actually milder than peers like RKLB, ASTS, SATL, RDW, FLY, and BKSY, concluding the market didn't punish the ATM as hard as he thought.
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24 Jun 26
Author reports Filtronic announced a secondary development contract with the same unnamed US space customer from its March £8m deal, this time for a high-frequency satellite payload module; speculates (unconfirmed) the customer could be Blue Origin or ASTS, drawing a parallel to its earlier SPCX relationship.
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22 Jun 26
Rebuts a claim about which space stock fell most from its peak, citing drawdown figures across several space names, noting RKLB has fallen the least.
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22 Jun 26
Highlights that $PL had a strong day relative to other space stocks, which broadly declined.
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12 Jun 26
Compares SPCX's IPO-day surge to a selloff in other space stocks, arguing the liquidity vacuum and halo effect make PL, ASTS, and RKLB buying opportunities at current levels.
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04 Jun 26
Discusses the company's plan to rely less on SpaceX over time, citing a research agreement with an unnamed US company and mentioning AMZN's Project Kuiper/LEO and ASTS as most-mentioned peers; notes potential for GaN V-band amp development to be a game changer, though still developed with SpaceX.
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03 Jun 26
Points to new all-time-high institutional ownership in PL, RKLB, SATL, ASTS, FLY, and LUNR as reassurance against sell-off worries, arguing the SpaceX IPO 'halo effect' is the beginning, not the end, for other space stocks.
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21 May 26
Author says Filtronic's research agreement with a US space supplier isn't confirmed yet, and the most-discussed candidates are Blue Origin, ASTS, and Amazon Leo.
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21 May 26
Author says the two most-mentioned names for Filtronic's unnamed US partner are Amazon or ASTS, but calls it speculation, possibly a European company instead.
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18 May 26
Declines to give a view on ASTS, saying he hasn't done proper research and points to other investors' coverage.
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18 May 26
Says he hasn't researched ASTS valuation, notes other investors he respects have bought it, and points to another analyst's coverage.
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18 May 26
Notes ASTS had a great day and expects the space sector broadly to have a great month.
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15 May 26
Bullish on Filtronic's strong relative performance; sees them central to SpaceX's E-band amp supply chain with AMZN or ASTS as the likely other research partner, and views the $1B market cap as undervalued given potential V-band expansion.
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11 May 26
Replies about his space telecommunications document, noting he owns HIMS but not ASTS, so he'll start with the HIMS earnings call.
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11 May 26
Flags that both HIMS and ASTS are down about 11% after hours following earnings, and that he plans to listen to both calls the next day.
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01 May 26
Provides his management-quality scores for JOBY (73/100) and ASTS (65/100), praising engineering execution at both but docking points heavily for shareholder dilution, SBC, and missed/optimistic timelines.
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29 Apr 26
Explains that beyond SpaceX, the company he is discussing has scaling customers like Airbus and the European Space Agency, and a new contract likely with AMZN's Project Kuiper or ASTS, though 75% of revenue is still concentrated in SpaceX.
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26 Apr 26
Counters that Alphabet has an arguably more diverse portfolio than Microsoft, citing its stakes in Waymo, Anthropic, SpaceX, Planet, and AST SpaceMobile.
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25 Apr 26
Asks whether AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a major customer of the fabless ASIC supplier being discussed.
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25 Apr 26
Breaks down the Tema Space ETF's (NASA) holdings by market cap and weighting, teasing a deeper analysis of why small-cap Filtronic gets outsized exposure.
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21 Apr 26
Explains E-band vs Ka-band vs V-band satellite communication technology, noting Filtronic/SpaceX are pushing V-band GaN amps to expand TAM, while Ka-band remains cheaper but crowded.
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20 Apr 26
Flags ASTS down 13% in overnight trading.
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19 Apr 26
Explains that the long-term plan needs 6-8 Block 2 satellites per launch, but Falcon 9 only holds 3 vs New Glenn's 8, so the failed New Glenn test launch could severely damage the ASTS timeline.
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19 Apr 26
Reiterates that the long-term plan requires 6-8 Block 2 satellites per launch; Falcon 9 caps at 3, New Glenn at 8, and the failed test satellite launch could damage the timeline.
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19 Apr 26
Explains the capacity constraint driving ASTS to use New Glenn: Falcon 9 maxes at 3 Block 2 satellites, New Glenn at 8, and the test launch only carried 1 block.
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19 Apr 26
Notes both ASTS and SpaceX are partially owned by Google, suggesting SpaceX will remain the preferred launch partner going forward.
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19 Apr 26
Reports the New Glenn launch of ASTS's BlueBird 7 suffered an upper-stage anomaly placing the satellite in an off-nominal orbit, likely triggering a New Glenn investigation and grounding; expects Block 2 completion delayed out of 2026, hopefully to Q2 2027. States he does not currently hold ASTS but will watch price action.
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17 Apr 26
Highlights the new NASA space ETF from Tema, noting its 10% SpaceX exposure and top holdings ASTS, RKLB, PL. Flags Filtronic (FTC) as the most interesting name given its 4.7% weight and $500m market cap, describing its RF/microwave business, and says he'll research it further.
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12 Apr 26
Lays out a broad catalyst calendar across his sector watchlist spanning Q2 2026 through Q3 2027, covering scaling, energization, acquisition closes, product shipments, launches, and constellation milestones for a wide range of AI infrastructure, space, and defense names.
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27 Mar 26
Second entry (#2) in the high-growth thread: highlights $ASTS's 3-year revenue CAGR of 199.8% and describes AST SpaceMobile as building a space-based cellular broadband network.
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23 Mar 26
Reacts positively to $ASTS's definitive agreement with Singapore's DSTA to demonstrate space-based cellular broadband, noting it proves direct-to-cell technology works even in a highly urban market, not just rural dead zones.
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21 Mar 26
Shares a chart of top growth stock performers of 2025 vs YTD 2026, asking followers which names appear in both lists (hinting there are 3). Attached image is a 2025 top-growth-performers list: PL +375%, IREN +307%, OPEN +298%, OKLO +292%, ONDS +260%, ASTS +259%, CIFR +249%, MP +246%, JMIA +238%, HOOD +226%, NBIS +223%, QBTS +219%, MU +216%, RKLB +177%, EOSE +169%.
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20 Mar 26
Posts YTD performance of pre-revenue stocks (OKLO, NNE, ASTS, JOBY, ACHR, QS, LUNR, POET, NUVL), concluding investors are de-risking from speculative names.
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16 Mar 26
Notes the market hypes NVDA's space partnerships with RKLB, RDW and ASTS while overlooking that PL actually holds that partnership, and wonders why FinTwit undervalues PL.
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02 Mar 26
AST SpaceMobile hit a major milestone by turning profitable, bringing in $71M in 2025 revenue and securing over $1.2B in future contracts; unfolded the BlueBird 6 satellite with the next launch planned for March, expanding its Texas factory and winning US government defense contracts. Stock dipped 3% after the report as investors weigh the high build-out costs.
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02 Mar 26
Previews AST SpaceMobile's earnings tonight, framing the focus as execution rather than current revenue: BlueBird satellite deployment timeline, progress on custom ASIC chips for next-gen satellites, global regulatory spectrum rights, and finalizing definitive commercial telco agreements as the factors that will dictate the commercial rollout timeline.
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01 Mar 26
Lists the earnings he'll be watching next week across defense, drone, quantum, crypto and other names, asking followers which companies he's missing. Attached image confirms an earnings calendar for the week of March 02, 2026 including Berkshire, Credo, Riot, BigBear.ai, MongoDB, Plug, QCi, ASTS, Achr, Target, Best Buy, Sea, CrowdStrike, GitLab, Abercrombie, Dycom, Broadcom, Rigetti, Wix, Veeva, Okta, Ooma, Bull, Ciena, Amprius, Marvell, JD.com, IoT names, Costco, and others.
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27 Feb 26
Lists his 'unpopular opinions' as head-to-head preferences across sectors: GOOGL over NVDA, FLNC over EOSE, AMPX over ONDS, HIMS over NVO, PL over ASTS, IREN over NBIS, and NU over SOFI.
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13 Feb 26
Curated AI-boom sector watchlist across cybersecurity, datacenters, energy grid, nuclear, solar, space, semiconductors, software/AI platforms, and humanoid robotics; marks which companies he personally owns.