FLNC
holds · 6.1% allocation
Conviction over time
Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish
Price targets
How each level moved over time. The last value is his current one.
Trades
What he actually did, newest first
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05 Aug 26
Waiting for earnings results before deciding whether to add
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07 Jul 26
WOLF reached his buying target so he added a bit more
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01 Jul 26
no trades executed this month; allocation shifts are purely from price action
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25 Jun 26
staying patient with cash, not adding to any positions while sentiment is negative
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09 Jun 26
still holding cash during the sell-off, not buying yet
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31 May 26
Bought some Wolfspeed in the beginning of the month.
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31 May 26
Bought some Fluence in the beginning of the month.
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31 May 26
Sold his TMDX shares.
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31 May 26
Sold ASML shares (+13% in 3 months) to fund a SK Hynix purchase.
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31 May 26
Bought SK Hynix using proceeds from selling ASML; wishes he had bought more three months ago (+114% since).
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26 May 26
09/03 call
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26 May 26
10/03 call
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26 May 26
11/03 call
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26 May 26
11/03 call
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26 May 26
31/03 call
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26 May 26
31/03 call
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26 May 26
31/03 call
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26 May 26
20/04 call
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26 May 26
27/04, closed the position
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26 May 26
05/05 call
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26 May 26
07/05 call
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12 May 26
Explicitly says he won't change anything about his FLNC position despite the volatility.
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10 May 26
Among most recent buys
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10 May 26
Among most recent buys
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10 May 26
Among most recent buys
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09 May 26
Bought after algos pushed the stock down post-earnings, judging the reaction as too low based on the call
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08 May 26
Buy at 487 on 09/03
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08 May 26
Buy at 20 on 10/03
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08 May 26
Buy at 88.66 on 11/03
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08 May 26
Buy at 6.52 on 11/03
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08 May 26
Buy at 4.9 on 31/03
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08 May 26
Buy at 16.7 on 31/03
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08 May 26
Buy at 18.7 on 31/03
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08 May 26
Buy at 230 on 20/04
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08 May 26
Sold at 8 on 27/04
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08 May 26
Buy at 36 on 05/05
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08 May 26
Buy at 16.67 on 07/05
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07 May 26
Sold TMDX shares today
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07 May 26
Used TMDX sale proceeds to add to FLNC position
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07 May 26
Added to Fluence position after listening to its earnings call
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07 May 26
Added to position after the Q1 earnings call
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01 May 26
sold this month to raise cash
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01 May 26
sold this month to raise cash
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01 May 26
sold this month to raise cash
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01 May 26
only buy made this month
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01 May 26
wants to add more to bring FTC up from 4.5% allocation, waiting for a better moment to buy
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06 Apr 26
clarifying which stock he sold — HOOD, not FLNC
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05 Apr 26
initiated new position
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05 Apr 26
initiated new position
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05 Apr 26
initiated new position, up 15% since entry
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05 Apr 26
initiated new position in SK Hynix
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05 Apr 26
bought extra shares, continuing to DCA
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05 Apr 26
plans to add 1 new position as part of concentrating the portfolio
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05 Apr 26
plans to sell 5 to 6 positions to bring total holdings from 16 down to 11
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27 Feb 26
Made zero trades in February — no panic selling, no chasing trends, no attempt to time the bottom
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02 Feb 26
Did not buy or sell anything during January, portfolio composition unchanged.
Reasoning trail
Every post mentioning FLNC, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised
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06 Aug 26
Agrees to share an update on Fluence Energy after listening to their earnings call.
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06 Aug 26
Notes Fluence Energy has turned positive and that management appeared to clarify something during the earnings call that shifted sentiment.
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06 Aug 26
Says he missed Fluence Energy's earnings call live but is surprised by the stock's swing into positive territory; plans to listen to the call that night to understand why.
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06 Aug 26
Argues $FLNC is attractive takeover material given Siemens wanting out, strong tech/demand despite poor execution, a hyperscaler contract, Nvidia blueprint battery tech, and a $2B market cap against a $6B backlog.
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05 Aug 26
Details $FLNC's ~25% post-earnings drop: revenue missed by 20% and EPS came in at -0.24 vs expected positive, with ~$400M of deliveries pushed to FY2027 and margin compression to 5.9% from production/construction delays. Notes offsetting positives: record backlog, ~$850M in data-center business secured through July, and a first hyperscaler order validating the tech, though execution remains a major question mark.
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05 Aug 26
In response to being asked whether he's adding to $FLNC, says he wants to see earnings first before deciding.
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01 Aug 26
Notes next week will be busy for his portfolio as PLTR, OUST, FLNC, and AMPX all report earnings, which he'll cover extensively.
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28 Jul 26
Clarifies he already owns $FLNC and explains it differs technically from the stock suggested to him (one needs grid connection, the other doesn't).
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27 Jul 26
Notes many of his target companies are around 10% from his buying targets, with $PLTR, $OUST, $FLNC and $AMPX reporting earnings next week; plans to wait for the calls before deciding.
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15 Jul 26
Names his top 5 preferred stocks to buy if all his buy targets are hit and the market recovers: PL, OUST, MRVL, FLNC, HIMS.
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07 Jul 26
After being offline during a move, says he's calm in this market; WOLF hit his buying target so he added a bit more at $34.3, and restates his full watchlist of buy/add targets across many tickers.
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01 Jul 26
Monthly portfolio update: MTD -3.7%, YTD +94.1%, no trades this month, allocation shifts purely from price action across 14 positions including Planet Labs, Ouster, Rocket Lab, Marvell, SK Hynix, ASM International, Palantir, Fluence, Hims, Google, Iren, Wolfspeed, Amprius and Filtronic.
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27 Jun 26
Publishes his personal add-target levels across his portfolio, based on allocation sizing and how undervalued each stock is, and says he'll try to stay patient.
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25 Jun 26
Explains he's staying patient and not adding despite negative market sentiment, doesn't try to call the bottom, and flags the week of July 20 (Hyperscaler earnings) as the key catalyst that could turn sentiment; remains happy with his current positions.
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24 Jun 26
Author flags Fluence's new 10MWh high-density Smartstack energy storage system as significant, given Fluence was selected as exclusive storage partner for Siemens' Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 AI data center reference architecture, allowing much higher energy density (~680 MWh/acre, +33%) without expanding land footprint.
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09 Jun 26
Notes another sell-off day, says he's still holding cash, and that some stocks are getting back into buying territory — but he prefers to buy after the market turns rather than try to call the exact bottom.
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02 Jun 26
Excited that NVDA's partnership with FLNC and comments calling MRVL the next $1T company have driven big rallies; his MRVL position from March is now +200%, and he thinks Marvell is the safest, best-positioned company in photonics, with a possible path to $1T market cap.
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01 Jun 26
FLNC up 52% on a strategic ecosystem partnership with NVDA, being written into NVIDIA's AI factory reference architecture as the grid-smoothing storage layer; sees this plus two Hyperscaler MSAs as proof Fluence is the best AI-datacenter battery provider.
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31 May 26
Monthly portfolio update: MTD +40.4%, YTD +97.8%. Bought WOLF and FLNC early in the month, sold TMDX, and sold ASML to fund a SK Hynix purchase (wishes he'd bought more three months ago). Cash allocation ~11.6% and building slightly via savings, not sales. Reviews all 14 core holdings with performance, allocation and outlook: PL (target $60 by year end, earnings 4/6), RKLB (surged on strong earnings), OUST (long-term hold, no longer buy territory), PLTR (favorite AI software play, #1 holding), SK Hynix (regrets not buying more), AMPX (bullish long-term on batteries/drones), IREN (highest-cost holding, datacenter thesis), MRVL (photonics center, healthy balance sheet), ASM.AS (longest-held, safe-haven, €1,000 target where he may trim), Filtronic (SpaceX GaN amp supplier), WOLF (bullish long-term, BoA target >$80), FLNC (Hyperscaler contracts, next quarters crucial), GOOGL (could become most valuable company), HIMS (small 3.7% allocation, may add).
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26 May 26
Recaps a public call track record over ~2.5 months on a hypothetical $1K-per-call basis: buys in SK Hynix, OUST, MRVL, POET (twice), HIMS, Filtronic, WOLF, FLNC, and a sale of POET at 8; reports total invested 10K growing to 18.77K, an 87.70% return.
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19 May 26
Defends FLNC's currently low margins as structural to its project-based, engineered-to-customer business model, and argues margins should expand as more units in the field adopt higher-margin Fluence IQ subscriptions (Mosaic, Nispera). Notes management has been transparent and delivered on a promised Q1 26 improvement after weak Q4 25 margins.
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15 May 26
Argues against the narrative that concentration is required to beat the market, citing his own track record of holding 12-17 stocks (avg 15) while beating the S&P 500 every year since 2023, with a portfolio breakdown showing Planet Labs, Rocket Lab, Palantir, Ouster and others as top holdings.
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12 May 26
Addresses questions about FLNC's 15% drop, arguing it's normal volatility given the stock is still up 66% on the week from Hyperscaler SMA news, and says he isn't changing his position.
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10 May 26
Names his most recent buys as Fluence, Wolfspeed, and Filtronic.
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10 May 26
Explains thesis on Fluence Energy: a battery company with contracts with two hyperscalers, positioned to meet datacenter energy storage needs.
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10 May 26
Jokingly answers that the best entry point today is whichever stock he has the least gains on, without naming a specific pick between FLNC and Filtronic.
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10 May 26
Full monthly portfolio update: 15% cash plus 14 named positions with allocation percentages and average cost basis / gain per position, from $PL as largest (16%) down to $HIMS smallest (4.7%, currently at a loss).
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09 May 26
Not in a position to give financial advice, but personally thinks Fluence still has room to run, and calls Filtronic another new favourite of his.
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09 May 26
Explains his research process: he studies a company deeply (using Fluence as the example) to know what he and the market are looking for before earnings; without that prior research and business case, earnings calls are mostly noise.
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09 May 26
Explains his edge is listening to earnings calls and interpreting the numbers himself rather than trusting algo-driven initial reactions; cites FLNC (bought after algos pushed it down, since up to $24 area), WOLF (bought/held through an algo-driven dip, now up 32%), and AEHR (missed buying an aftermarket dip, stock later up 50%).
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08 May 26
Joking that a repost from another account (Serinity) boosted FLNC's stock more than his own call.
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08 May 26
Recaps a hypothetical $1K-per-decision portfolio of his last 2 months of calls, showing a 53.85% total return across SK Hynix, OUST, MRVL, POET (bought twice, sold), HIMS, Filtronic, WOLF, and FLNC.
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08 May 26
Clarifies he sold TMDX shares, not AMPX, using an attached screenshot of his own earlier post as proof; he still holds AMPX and used the TMDX proceeds to add to FLNC.
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08 May 26
Credits some luck for his recent successful stock flags (FTC, WOLF, FLNC).
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08 May 26
Says an FLNC upgrade was expected after the company's earnings.
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08 May 26
Explains he sold TMDX to concentrate his portfolio further since he lacks time to monitor many stocks; TMDX had shrunk to 1% of his portfolio after results, so he moved the money into Fluence.
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07 May 26
Announces he sold TMDX and used the proceeds to add to FLNC, keeping cash allocation at ~15%. Also flags he'll review AMPX earnings (already listened) and plans to listen to IREN and RKLB earnings calls, both of which he holds, noting aftermarket looks great for the latter two.
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07 May 26
Thanks someone for sharing his FLNC analysis, jokingly admitting he doesn't know much about chart analysis himself.
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07 May 26
Notes his cost basis on Fluence was already just above $17, explaining why adding more didn't break his own 'don't buy on strength' rule.
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07 May 26
Explains he had to choose between listening to Fluence's and Amprius's earnings calls on a day with a big market dip; picked Fluence first, considering adding, and did add; plans to listen to Amprius that night.
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07 May 26
Detailed bullish writeup on Fluence's earnings: added to his position at $16.67 despite a revenue miss from a delayed shipment, citing a rising backlog (~22GW deployed/contracted, $5.6B backlog), two new hyperscaler MSAs with first orders expected in Q3 and deliveries within a year, and management's focus on top-line growth over cost cutting; views the $3.4B valuation against the $5.6B backlog as cheap.
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06 May 26
States a price of around $17 in response to a discussion about Fluence entry pricing, consistent with his stated FLNC cost basis in nearby posts.
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06 May 26
Recommends Fluence to another user looking for battery storage exposure to datacenters.
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06 May 26
Acknowledges he may break his own rule of only adding to a position when it gets cheaper, specifically for Fluence.
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06 May 26
Author is bullish on FLNC after a 24% pop on a hyperscaler supply deal and record $5.6B backlog; margins improved despite a revenue miss, and he's considering buying more.
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02 May 26
Explains FLNC's earnings miss was due to two mismanaged projects and didn't hurt the stock much until EOSE's much worse earnings miss dragged FLNC down too; calls FLNC's $5B backlog enormous but says he'll sell if margins aren't proven under control next week.
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02 May 26
Asks why a follower sold $AMPX, and confirms he's still holding $FLNC, though it's now his smallest position after a bad run; will decide after next week's earnings whether to add or sell.
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01 May 26
Publishes management-quality scores for his full current holding list under his rating framework: GOOGL 97, FTC 96, SK Hynix 93, ASM.AS 92, OUST 90, PL 89, MRVL 88, PLTR 87, TMDX 87, HIMS 85, RKLB 79, AMPX 75, FLNC 73, IREN 35 — generally praising execution and capital discipline, with dilution and guidance misses as the main detractors, and IREN scored lowest for promotional narrative pivots and heavy dilution.
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01 May 26
Monthly portfolio update: best month ever at +48.49% return. Raised cash by selling POET, HOOD and CROWD; only buy was FTC (Filtronic). Wants to add to FTC (currently 4.5% allocation) but is waiting for a better entry. 45% of holdings report earnings next week, especially TMDX and FLNC, his worst performers now under 3% allocation each — earnings will decide whether he trims or adds. Plans to move toward a more concentrated ~12-stock portfolio and expects more trading this month.
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28 Apr 26
Reports Fluence Energy scored 73/100 in his framework, higher than he expected.
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11 Apr 26
Announces he's first place in a stock-picking fantasy league (Fantasy Stock League by @ThetaForgeX and @muted_money), and shares his virtual portfolio including $PL, $AMPX, $PLTR, and $RKLB as favourite real-life picks. Screenshot confirms a portfolio allocation chart topped by PL, AMPX, PLTR, FLNC, RKLB, TMDX, ASML, LOW, LMT, C.
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07 Apr 26
Market de-risking hit energy storage hardest: wave P/S dropped from 3.98 to 3.27 on declines in EOSE, FLNC, ENVX, CATL, though CATL/LG's dominance cushioned the wave. He holds exposure via FLNC and expects the sector's importance to grow over time.
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07 Apr 26
Index post for his Q4 energy-transition thread, listing the 7 waves he tracks (Wind, Green Hydrogen, Solar, Energy Storage, Nuclear, LNG, Mixed companies) and their constituent companies.
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06 Apr 26
Agrees that FLNC's problems stem from the Envision situation rather than the numbers, and expects margins to improve next earnings now that the two mismanaged projects are behind them.
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06 Apr 26
Clarifies he sold HOOD, not FLNC.
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06 Apr 26
Confirms one of the two guessed tickers (HOOD) is correct but says he doesn't yet know what he'll do about the other (FLNC).
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05 Apr 26
Monthly portfolio update: up 6.9% in March, led by PL, PLTR, RKLB and AMPX; initiated four new positions (OUST, POET, MRVL, SK Hynix), added to HIMS; TMDX, HOOD, FLNC and IREN declined; plans to cut cash from 20% to 10% and consolidate from 16 to 11 holdings.
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03 Apr 26
Tells a follower there's no fresh news on FLNC; sentiment in the sector has broken down.
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03 Apr 26
Surveys a rough Q1 2026 across nuclear/grid/solar/hydrogen names; holds FLNC (down 27%, his smallest position at 3% of portfolio) and says management trust in the sector is gone, with no turnaround expected before next earnings, though he still sees the energy grid thesis as critical.
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11 Mar 26
Agrees with holding FLNC and letting it ride toward recovery, same as the person he's replying to.
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04 Mar 26
Highlights $FLNC as a $2.8B company with a record $5.5B backlog, positioned in the fast-growing energy storage market.
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04 Mar 26
Explains that $FLNC's prior margin problems stemmed from two mismanaged projects in Q4 that should be resolved next quarter, and that margins should continue rising as the company scales its high-margin AI subscription software sold alongside its battery packages.
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03 Mar 26
Defends the FLNC data-center bull case, citing the earnings call transcript: CEO said Fluence's tech is uniquely positioned versus traditional data-center cooling/tech, and the 36 GWh pipeline is not all yet booked, representing further upside.
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03 Mar 26
Explains FLNC's asset-lite model: they don't manufacture battery cells but source from top suppliers and integrate them into proprietary Smartstack/Gridstack systems, factory-assembled and plug-and-play, cutting on-site build time and letting them adopt the cheapest available battery chemistry.
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03 Mar 26
Rebuts a claim that FLNC has no data-center pipeline, citing the latest report's 36 GWh data-center pipeline and the CEO championing AI power demand as a growth catalyst, positioning Fluence's tech for hyperscaler power resiliency needs.
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03 Mar 26
Full FLNC bull thesis: reframes Fluence as an AI-driven energy software/services company using battery hardware as a customer-acquisition channel (the 'Trojan Horse' economics), with a durable moat from switching costs and the Mosaic AI data flywheel, solid liquidity backstopped by Siemens/AES parentage, explosive revenue growth, a $5.5B backlog, IRA-driven US pricing power, and a growing AI data-center pipeline; sees the market mispricing FLNC as a low-margin hardware assembler at ~0.8x P/S, with price target moving from $15.12 to $41.80.
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27 Feb 26
February portfolio recap: -15.6% for the month but only -0.9% YTD after January's run-up. Attributes the drawdown to a valuation reset in high-conviction AI/software names, volatility in high-beta growth holdings, and resilience from semiconductor/foundational holdings. Made zero trades in February, reaffirms conviction in his 16-company portfolio, framing inactivity as a deliberate choice not to interrupt long-term compounding.
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27 Feb 26
Disagrees with a comparison grouping FLNC and EOSE together, saying they're in completely different situations.
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27 Feb 26
Agrees that FLNC currently offers a good entry price.
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27 Feb 26
Detailed comparison of EOS Energy and Fluence Energy Q4 earnings; author argues Fluence is a maturing, structurally profitable market leader with a huge backlog and liquidity, while EOS is an early-stage speculative play still losing money on every unit it manufactures. Concludes he chooses Fluence over EOS.
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27 Feb 26
Lists his 'unpopular opinions' as head-to-head preferences across sectors: GOOGL over NVDA, FLNC over EOSE, AMPX over ONDS, HIMS over NVO, PL over ASTS, IREN over NBIS, and NU over SOFI.
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26 Feb 26
Clarifies he is not bearish on energy overall, discloses he holds FLNC in his portfolio, and says not every energy company will survive, calling out EOS's numbers and management as weak.
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18 Feb 26
Explains $FLNC's recent margin issues as a byproduct of ramping U.S. manufacturing (Utah modules, Tennessee battery cells) to qualify for IRA tax credits, plus problems on two non-U.S. projects; expects margins to improve next quarter.
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17 Feb 26
Closes an 8-part energy-sector thread with a 'New Energy Hierarchy' framework: buy grid reliability names ($VST, $CEG, $CCJ), buy storage/fix plays ($FLNC, $TSLA), buy gas logistics ($LNG), and avoid green hydrogen entirely as an uninvestable cash incinerator.
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17 Feb 26
Energy storage is the 'picks and shovels' trade on grid instability from renewables. Fluence is the pure-play leader with a sticky, funded backlog and improving software margins; Tesla Energy is a sleeping giant growing faster than Automotive; Eos and ESS are high-risk bets on non-lithium chemistry.
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16 Feb 26
Brief agreement that Fluence is interesting given its huge backlog.
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16 Feb 26
Lays out his 'core infrastructure stack' of four holdings: IREN as the pure-play on AI power bottleneck, Fluence for grid-storage backlog, Planet Labs for its Google Earth Live real-time satellite monopoly, and Amprius as the physics-based fix for lithium-ion's weight limit in drones/eVTOL. Frames it as buying the plumbing, not the hype.
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13 Feb 26
Questions whether FLNC's drop is related to IREN, notes FLNC's own disappointing earnings as the likely cause.
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13 Feb 26
Curated AI-boom sector watchlist across cybersecurity, datacenters, energy grid, nuclear, solar, space, semiconductors, software/AI platforms, and humanoid robotics; marks which companies he personally owns.
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05 Feb 26
Clarifies that FLNC's fiscal 2026 guidance is effectively fully covered by backlog, i.e. the company has already 'sold' every dollar it expects to make this year.
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04 Feb 26
Attributes this quarter's weak FLNC margins to one mismanaged project, expects improvement next quarter, and reiterates that next year's backlog exceeds the total market cap, leaving a lot of upside.
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04 Feb 26
FLNC dropped 15% on mixed Q4 results, but author argues the $5.5B backlog now fully covers full-year sales guidance and the $30B sales pipeline (up 30% in three months) shows explosive underlying demand from AI data centers and grid upgrades.
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03 Feb 26
In a down week for the market, highlights three portfolio holdings that showed strength: AMPX (+23%), FLNC (+5%), and HOLN (+2.2%), none of which had earnings.
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02 Feb 26
January portfolio update: up 11.56% for the month with no trades made. For the first time in two years PLTR is not his largest holding; PL is now the top position. Full 16-name portfolio with allocation weights disclosed.