Conviction over time

Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish

Price targets

How each level moved over time. The last value is his current one.

Trades

What he actually did, newest first

• 30 Jan 26

  Sold MSFT stock last year

  sell post →

Reasoning trail

Every post mentioning MSFT, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised

• 29 Apr 26

  Detailed breakdown of raised 2026 CapEx guidance from AMZN, GOOGL, META and MSFT following earnings, framing the combined spend as an AI-driven historic infrastructure buildout in compute, data centers, and power/cooling.

  bullish medium post →
• 04 Apr 26

  Notes with interest that Microsoft is the biggest shareholder in OpenAI's leaked cap table.

  neutral low post →
• 23 Mar 26

  Notes $GOOGL and $MSFT competing for HBM supply, highlighting ongoing AI supply chain bottlenecks that benefit Samsung, $MU, and SK Hynix shareholders.

  bullish medium post →
• 21 Mar 26

  Agrees MSFT is undervalued with upside potential, but wants to see improvement on the AI side.

  mixed medium post →
• 21 Mar 26

  Kicks off a thread of interesting 5-star Morningstar stocks with $MSFT, fair value $600 with 57% potential upside.

  neutral low post →
• 04 Mar 26

  Shares a full article breaking down the AI chip supply chain into 4 phases and 13 layers, listing companies at each stage from raw materials to hyperscalers.

  neutral low post →
• 27 Feb 26

  Praises a detailed IQE breakdown and asks whether hyperscalers like GOOGL and MSFT might directly co-invest, provide non-dilutive financing, or prepay to accelerate IQE's reactor refactoring, drawing a parallel to the crypto-miner-to-HPC pivot.

  bullish low post →
• 25 Feb 26

  Reacting to news that big tech will self-procure AI data center power, sees it as a win for public grids and expects AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, META and ORCL to accelerate capex into nuclear (SMRs) and renewables for off-grid baseload power.

  bullish medium post →
• 25 Feb 26

  Sees big tech's move to self-procure AI data center power as a win for public grids and expects AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, META and ORCL to accelerate capex into nuclear (SMRs) and renewables for off-grid baseload power.

  bullish medium post →
• 25 Feb 26

  Lays out five reasons he prefers IREN over CIFR: a larger revenue ceiling from owning hardware and monetizing compute directly, faster/more compressed revenue realization including a prepaid MSFT contract, preferred access to constrained NVDA silicon, full vertical integration for speed-to-market, and a retained bitcoin mining fleet used for power arbitrage.

  bullish high post →
• 17 Feb 26

  Nuclear is at an all-time-high P/S as hyperscalers bypass utilities to sign direct power purchase agreements with nuclear operators. Uranium miners like Cameco and Kazatomprom benefit from rising floor prices, and BWXT is becoming a prime commercial SMR component supplier. Warns that SMR developers like Oklo and NuScale are trading on 2030 promises in a speculative mania — the safer trade is miners and existing fleet operators.

  mixed high post →
• 10 Feb 26

  Astera Labs fell 10% despite a massive Q4 double beat (115% revenue growth) on a sell-the-news reaction, with investors spooked by slightly lower guided margins, a new CFO, and higher R&D spend even as fundamentals remain strong.

  mixed low post →
• 05 Feb 26

  Calls IREN's 14% post-earnings drop a massive overreaction driven by non-cash items (convertible note adjustments, legacy mining impairments) rather than core business health. Highlights $3.6B in low-interest financing/prepayments de-risking the MSFT expansion, the Sweetwater build-out on track for April energization giving IREN gigawatt-scale power capacity, and over $4B cash. Sees this as a rotation from weak hands to infrastructure-focused long-term investors, with the annual revenue target shift still intact.

  bullish high post →
• 30 Jan 26

  Discloses he sold his MSFT position last year, believing the company is behind on AI and now needs heavy extra CapEx to catch up, which concerns him.

  bearish medium post →
• 29 Jan 26

  Notes Microsoft stock is down 11% post-earnings, with investors unconvinced despite the results.

  bearish low post →
• 28 Jan 26

  Thinks Microsoft's stock drop was unwarranted given the strength of the results (Azure growth referenced by the parent).

  bullish low post →
• 28 Jan 26

  Mixed take on Microsoft's Q4 double beat: strong headline revenue and 39% Azure growth, but capex nearly doubling to ~$30B and a $7.6B OpenAI paper gain inflating reported profit left investors worried AI costs are outrunning cash returns, sending the stock down 6%.

  mixed medium post →
• 28 Jan 26

  Flags a heavy earnings slate reporting after the close tonight across Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, Lam Research, ServiceNow, Fair Isaac, and IBM.

  neutral low post →
• 28 Jan 26

  Reacting to news of Copilot Agent Mode in Excel, he says Microsoft's AI is still well behind competitor LLMs but calls it a start.

  mixed low post →
• 28 Jan 26

  Preview of Microsoft's Q4 earnings, focused on Azure capacity constraints vs demand, Copilot adoption moving to enterprise-wide subscriptions, and proof that AI infrastructure spend is generating cash returns now.

  neutral medium post →