LITE
watching
Conviction over time
Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish
Reasoning trail
Every post mentioning LITE, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised
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05 Apr 26
Thesis that companies solving AI infrastructure bottlenecks (memory/HBM, packaging, servers, networking, photonics, power/thermal) have pricing power to pass on war-driven energy inflation, making them attractive during market corrections; lists names across each category.
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03 Apr 26
Discusses vertical integration in optics, noting LITE/COHR rely on companies like FN while AAOI keeps everything in-house, and asks whether that's a competitive advantage.
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02 Apr 26
Deep dive on FN as the overlooked manufacturing backbone of the optical industry, building high-margin components for LITE, COHR, and directly for NVDA's optical cables; sees it as a lower-ceiling but safer route into the photonics bottleneck. States he is not yet an investor and wants to research further before deciding.
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30 Mar 26
Deep dive on SIVE: gross margins are shrinking due to revenue mix shift toward lower-margin custom products, but revenue itself is growing and the standard/high-margin product pipeline grew 90%. Sees SIVE serving AI compute (silicon photonics/CPO) and SATCOM/5G beamforming bottlenecks via a specialized, supply-constrained niche in high-power DFB laser arrays, avoiding direct competition with LITE and COHR. Views the 65% high-margin revenue target as achievable but slow due to long design-to-volume cycles (3-5 years) and manufacturing yield risk. Not yet a shareholder.
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29 Mar 26
Agrees with an analysis on the photonics transition, noting AAOI, LITE, and COHR have stronger current financials than SOI and IQE, but says SIVE is the one name whose financials currently look promising to him.
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29 Mar 26
Points out that AAOI, LITE and COHR have genuinely rising revenues and gross margins, and warns the reader against chasing other photonics names with weaker fundamentals hoping for the same result.
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27 Mar 26
Opens a thread of 10 companies averaging +50% 3-year revenue growth; tenth entry (#10) highlights $LITE's 3-year revenue CAGR of 56.1% and describes Lumentum as an optical/photonic component maker for AI data centers.
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17 Mar 26
Agrees Jensen Huang's comments on investing in the supply chain validate the optical supercycle thesis.
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14 Mar 26
Thesis post: major tech layoffs (AMZN, META, ORCL, XYZ, CRM, ASML) are being redirected into AI R&D and capex, not signs of weak fundamentals. He is bullish on companies that control the emerging AI infrastructure bottlenecks — memory/HBM, packaging/OSAT, server/rack integration, networking silicon, photonics/optical, and power/thermal/grid — naming SK Hynix, Samsung, MU, ASE Technology, AMKR, JCET, SMCI, DELL, HPE, Foxconn, AVGO, MRVL, CSCO, ANET, Ayar Labs, ALAB, CRDO, COHR, LITE, VRT, MOD, NVT, SU.PA, IREN, NBIS, CIFR.
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08 Mar 26
Lists names he's researching more closely in the AI/data center supply chain space: Marvell, SK Hynix, Vertiv, Amkor, Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum.
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07 Mar 26
Announces a new listenable article about the AI supply chain, teasing why AXTI, AAOI and LITE are critical bottlenecks, why SK Hynix is completely sold out in 2026, and why ASML and LRCX are lagging a bit behind.
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06 Mar 26
Names MRVL, LITE, and COHR as heavy competition in the optical/AI infrastructure space alongside VRT.
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04 Mar 26
Shares a full article breaking down the AI chip supply chain into 4 phases and 13 layers, listing companies at each stage from raw materials to hyperscalers.
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27 Feb 26
Lists companies he plans to research over the weekend: IBRX, AAOI, UAMY, LITE, POET, TE, AMPX.
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26 Feb 26
Asks whether a downstream partner like LITE might make a direct strategic investment or buyout in IQE to secure its reactor capacity ahead of a market re-rating, calling the parent's breakdown fantastic.
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13 Feb 26
Agrees that photonics names (LITE, COHR, AAOI, ALMU, POET) should have been included in his list.
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03 Feb 26
LITE surged 10% on a very strong Q4 double beat driven by AI data center demand for optical components; author calls it a cornerstone of the AI buildout with a large backlog and new co-packaged optics orders arriving 2027.