Conviction over time

Sentiment weighted by conviction, oldest to newest — above the line is bullish

Reasoning trail

Every post mentioning FLY, newest first — the thesis as it was built and revised

• 25 Jun 26

  Author revisits his earlier view that PL's ATM timing was bad, now noting PL's drawdown from ATH (48%) is actually milder than peers like RKLB, ASTS, SATL, RDW, FLY, and BKSY, concluding the market didn't punish the ATM as hard as he thought.

  neutral medium post →
• 22 Jun 26

  Rebuts a claim about which space stock fell most from its peak, citing drawdown figures across several space names, noting RKLB has fallen the least.

  neutral low post →
• 22 Jun 26

  Highlights that $PL had a strong day relative to other space stocks, which broadly declined.

  bullish low post →
• 12 Jun 26

  Says he isn't a big fan of Firefly Aerospace, preferring other space opportunities.

  bearish low post →
• 03 Jun 26

  Points to new all-time-high institutional ownership in PL, RKLB, SATL, ASTS, FLY, and LUNR as reassurance against sell-off worries, arguing the SpaceX IPO 'halo effect' is the beginning, not the end, for other space stocks.

  bullish high post →
• 17 May 26

  Explains why raw backlog figures in a space-sector chart are misleading without knowing (1) backlog vs. orders-on-hand timing, (2) margin differences between SaaS-like models (PL) and hardware-heavy models (FLY), and (3) whether the backlog is subscription-based (predictable) or project-based (can signal delays). Warns against using backlog-to-market-cap comparisons without this context.

  neutral medium post →
• 25 Apr 26

  Breaks down the Tema Space ETF's (NASA) holdings by market cap and weighting, teasing a deeper analysis of why small-cap Filtronic gets outsized exposure.

  bullish medium post →
• 21 Apr 26

  Explains E-band vs Ka-band vs V-band satellite communication technology, noting Filtronic/SpaceX are pushing V-band GaN amps to expand TAM, while Ka-band remains cheaper but crowded.

  neutral low post →
• 12 Apr 26

  Lays out a broad catalyst calendar across his sector watchlist spanning Q2 2026 through Q3 2027, covering scaling, energization, acquisition closes, product shipments, launches, and constellation milestones for a wide range of AI infrastructure, space, and defense names.

  bullish medium post →
• 08 Apr 26

  Compares NVDA's new partnership with space company Fly Aerospace to its Planet Labs partnership, noting the difference in imaging distance from the moon vs earth.

  neutral low post →